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Iceland vs Turkey

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 Laugardalsvöllur
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AI Match Summary

Iceland play Turkey in the UEFA Nations League 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Iceland averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. Turkey averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. In past meetings, Iceland won 2, Turkey won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Oct 14, 2024 ended 2:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Iceland and 2.44 for Turkey. This points to a Turkey double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Iceland
15%
Draws
53%
Turkey
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Turkey

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence
  • Iceland picked up more points recently compared to Turkey.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 2.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 66%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 66%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Iceland Clean Sheet 10%
Turkey Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Iceland Turkey
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 18
Draws 4 4
Losses 16 8
Goals Scored 1.53 1.8
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 14, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Iceland vs Turkey
2:4
Sep 9, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Turkey vs Iceland
3:1
Nov 14, 2019 Euro
Turkey vs Iceland
0:0
Jun 11, 2019 Euro
Iceland vs Turkey
2:1
Oct 6, 2017 World Championship
Turkey vs Iceland
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Iceland Compare

Top Goalscorer Oskarsson O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gudjohnsen A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Turkey Compare

Top Goalscorer Kahveci I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Guler A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.53

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Iceland 31 / 100
Turkey 51 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Iceland Turkey

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Turkey Win (2)
Secondary Pick Turkey & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +33.4%
4.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.2%
1.67
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Iceland attacking → ← attacking Turkey

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Iceland scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Turkey let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Iceland went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Turkey lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

European tournament. Big stakes for both clubs, so expect a tense, high-pressure match.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

34 Points in last 5 58
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 2.75
2.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Czech Republic63219:811
2Ukraine62228:88
3Georgia62137:67
4Albania62134:67
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1England650116:315
2Greece650111:415
3Ireland62043:126
4Finland60062:130
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Norway641115:713
2Austria632114:511
3Slovenia62227:98
4Kazakhstan60150:151
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Wales63309:412
2Turkey63219:611
3Iceland621310:137
4Montenegro61054:93