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Ilbirs vs Neftchi Kochkor-Ata

Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan

Premier Liga
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Ergemlidze M.
70' Event
Dovgyi O.
87'
Baker A.

AI Match Summary

Ilbirs in this Premier Liga matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ilbirs.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Ilbirs
20%
Draws
36%
Neftchi Kochkor-Ata
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ilbirs

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Neftchi Kochkor-Ata lately — more wins on the board than Ilbirs.
  • 44% — that's where the model lands on Ilbirs taking it.
  • Regular Premier Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Ilbirs Clean Sheet 20%
Neftchi Kochkor-Ata Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ilbirs Neftchi Kochkor-Ata
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 7 10
Draws 13 3
Losses 10 16
Goals Scored 1.17 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 13, 2026 Premier Liga
Ilbirs vs Neftchi Kochkor-Ata
2:1
Aug 8, 2025 Premier Liga
Neftchi Kochkor-Ata vs Ilbirs
2:0
May 22, 2025 Premier Liga
Ilbirs vs Neftchi Kochkor-Ata
2:2
Nov 3, 2024 Premier Liga
Ilbirs vs Neftchi Kochkor-Ata
1:0
Aug 24, 2024 Premier Liga
Ilbirs vs Neftchi Kochkor-Ata
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ilbirs Compare

Top Goalscorer Dovgyi O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Isakov A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Neftchi Kochkor-Ata Compare

Top Goalscorer Ergemlidze M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ilbirs 76 / 100
Neftchi Kochkor-Ata 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ilbirs Neftchi Kochkor-Ata

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ilbirs Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ilbirs's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Solid form: Ilbirs remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Neftchi Kochkor-Ata has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Ilbirs VS Neftchi Kochkor-Ata
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
2 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Ilbirs

(Home)
19 Aug
Muras United
1 : 1
Ilbirs
15 Aug
Ilbirs
3 : 0
Dordoi Bishkek
11 Aug
Ilbirs
1 : 1
Asia Talas
07 Aug
Talant
0 : 2
Ilbirs
01 Aug
Ilbirs
4 : 0
Aldier
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Neftchi Kochkor-Ata

(Away)
01 Sept
Neftchi Kochkor-Ata
3 : 1
Alga Bishkek
23 Aug
Bars
4 : 0
Neftchi Kochkor-Ata
14 Aug
Neftchi Kochkor-Ata
4 : 1
Abdysh-Ata Kant
07 Aug
Dordoi Bishkek
5 : 1
Neftchi Kochkor-Ata
03 Aug
Neftchi Kochkor-Ata
2 : 0
Talant
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ozgon 22 14 2 6 48:27 44
2 Bars 21 13 4 4 57:31 43
3 Muras United 21 12 7 2 46:20 43
4 Alga Bishkek 21 12 6 3 39:22 42
5 Alay Osh 21 12 5 4 31:20 41
6 Asia Talas 21 11 7 3 47:34 40
7 Talant 24 7 9 8 29:25 30
8 Dordoi Bishkek 22 8 4 10 34:30 28
9 Toktogul 23 8 4 11 26:35 28
10 Aldier 22 7 6 9 32:39 27
11 Neftchi Kochkor-Ata 21 8 2 11 28:37 26
12 Ilbirs 21 5 9 7 27:33 24
13 Bishkek City 21 4 8 9 20:30 20
14 Asiagoal Bishkek 21 3 9 9 24:36 18
15 Abdysh-Ata Kant 23 2 5 16 18:49 11
16 Kyrgyzaltyn 21 1 5 15 19:57 8
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Qualification)