Sport Picks

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Ilbirs vs Ozgon

Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan

Premier Liga
Ilbirs Logo

Ilbirs

0 - 1
FT
Ozgon Logo

Ozgon

Our Tip

Match Events

67' Event
Hernandez Sotelo A. E.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Ozgon in this Premier Liga matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ozgon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Ilbirs
30%
Draws
35%
Ozgon
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Ozgon have won more games recently than Ilbirs.
  • Ilbirs are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Premier Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Ozgon here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Ilbirs Clean Sheet 68%
Ozgon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ilbirs Ozgon
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 8 17
Draws 13 3
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.2 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 Premier Liga
Ozgon vs Ilbirs
5:1
Jul 10, 2026 Premier Liga
Ilbirs vs Ozgon
0:1
Oct 5, 2025 Premier Liga
Ilbirs vs Ozgon
1:3
Apr 13, 2025 Premier Liga
Ozgon vs Ilbirs
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ilbirs Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Ozgon Compare

Top Goalscorer Hernandez Sotelo A. E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ilbirs 50 / 100
Ozgon 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ilbirs Ozgon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ilbirs Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ilbirs's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Solid form: Ilbirs remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Ozgon has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.75 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Ilbirs VS Ozgon
1.63 Goals Scored 2
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Ilbirs

(Home)
17 Sept
Asiagoal Bishkek
0 : 1
Ilbirs
11 Sept
Ilbirs
1 : 1
Bishkek City
19 Aug
Muras United
1 : 1
Ilbirs
15 Aug
Ilbirs
3 : 0
Dordoi Bishkek
11 Aug
Ilbirs
1 : 1
Asia Talas
Page 1 of 6

Ozgon

(Away)
03 Sept
Abdysh-Ata Kant
0 : 5
Ozgon
30 Aug
Ozgon
4 : 3
Bishkek City
21 Aug
Talant
1 : 0
Ozgon
14 Aug
Ozgon
3 : 2
Aldier
07 Aug
Toktogul
3 : 2
Ozgon
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bars 23 15 4 4 65:32 49
2 Muras United 22 13 7 2 47:20 46
3 Alga Bishkek 23 13 7 3 41:23 46
4 Asia Talas 24 13 7 4 55:38 46
5 Ozgon 22 14 2 6 48:27 44
6 Alay Osh 24 12 5 7 33:31 41
7 Talant 24 7 9 8 29:25 30
8 Dordoi Bishkek 23 8 5 10 36:32 29
9 Neftchi Kochkor-Ata 24 9 2 13 33:42 29
10 Ilbirs 23 6 10 7 29:34 28
11 Aldier 24 7 7 10 35:43 28
12 Toktogul 23 8 4 11 26:35 28
13 Bishkek City 24 6 9 9 26:33 27
14 Asiagoal Bishkek 24 4 9 11 27:40 21
15 Abdysh-Ata Kant 23 2 5 16 18:49 11
16 Kyrgyzaltyn 24 1 6 17 19:63 9
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Qualification)