Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Iliria Kruja vs Besa Kavaje

Albania Albania

Abissnet Superiore Stadiumi Redi Maloku
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Iliria Kruja play Besa Kavaje in the Abissnet Superiore. It looks like a close match. Recently, Iliria Kruja averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. Besa Kavaje averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. In past meetings, Iliria Kruja won 2, Besa Kavaje won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 7, 2026 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Iliria Kruja and 1.38 for Besa Kavaje. This points to a Besa Kavaje double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Iliria Kruja
25%
Draws
38%
Besa Kavaje
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Besa Kavaje

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Iliria Kruja picked up more points recently compared to Besa Kavaje.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 43%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Iliria Kruja Clean Sheet 17%
Besa Kavaje Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 61%
Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Iliria Kruja Besa Kavaje
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 12
Draws 11 5
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.1 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 7, 2026 Abissnet Superiore
Iliria Kruja vs Besa Kavaje
0:2
Feb 22, 2026 Kategoria e Parë
Iliria Kruja vs Besa Kavaje
1:0
Dec 21, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Besa Kavaje vs Iliria Kruja
3:1
Oct 4, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Iliria Kruja vs Besa Kavaje
2:1
Feb 1, 2020 Kategoria e Parë
Besa Kavaje vs Iliria Kruja
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Iliria Kruja Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Besa Kavaje Compare

Top Goalscorer Cordeiro W.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Chinwendu G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Iliria Kruja 37 / 100
Besa Kavaje 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Iliria Kruja Besa Kavaje

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Besa Kavaje or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.1%
2.70
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Iliria Kruja attacking → ← attacking Besa Kavaje

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Iliria Kruja scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Besa Kavaje let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Iliria Kruja went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Besa Kavaje lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 41
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88