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Ilkeston vs Guiseley - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

NPL Premier Division
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Berchil A.
71' Event
Thewlis J.

AI Match Summary

The NPL Premier Division game between Ilkeston and Guiseley finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Guiseley.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Ilkeston
15%
Draws
85%
Guiseley
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Guiseley

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Guiseley carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Guiseley are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Ilkeston Clean Sheet 10%
Guiseley Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ilkeston Guiseley
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 8 17
Draws 4 5
Losses 16 8
Goals Scored 0.96 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 6, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Ilkeston vs Guiseley
0:2
Feb 14, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Ilkeston vs Guiseley
1:0
Oct 11, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Guiseley vs Ilkeston
1:4
Feb 15, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Guiseley vs Ilkeston
1:1
Oct 19, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Ilkeston vs Guiseley
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ilkeston Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Guiseley Compare

Top Goalscorer Berchil A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Thewlis J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.53

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ilkeston 10 / 100
Guiseley 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ilkeston Guiseley

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guiseley Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ilkeston's goal record stands at 61% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Guiseley let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Guiseley's recent record shows 1 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Ilkeston VS Guiseley
0.5 Goals Scored 2.63
2.88 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Ilkeston

(Home)
06 Oct
Ilkeston
0 : 2
Guiseley
03 Oct
Lancaster
2 : 1
Ilkeston
29 Sept
Ilkeston
0 : 1
Warrington Rylands
26 Sept
Ilkeston
1 : 3
Anstey Nomads
12 Sept
Workington
3 : 1
Ilkeston
Page 1 of 6

Guiseley

(Away)
06 Oct
Ilkeston
0 : 2
Guiseley
03 Oct
Guiseley
1 : 0
Bradford PA
29 Sept
Alfreton
1 : 0
Guiseley
26 Sept
Guiseley
4 : 2
Bamber Bridge
19 Sept
Hebburn Town
1 : 4
Guiseley
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cleethorpes 12 8 3 1 27:7 27
2 Avro 10 8 1 1 33:19 25
3 Redcar Athletic 12 7 4 1 23:11 25
4 Guiseley 11 7 1 3 24:11 22
5 Workington 12 6 3 3 23:19 21
6 Warrington Rylands 12 6 2 4 20:17 20
7 Curzon Ashton 10 6 1 3 21:11 19
8 Alfreton 12 6 0 6 18:13 18
9 Warrington Town 10 5 3 2 20:16 18
10 Bury FC 10 5 1 4 19:9 16
11 Gainsborough 10 5 1 4 20:14 16
12 Lancaster 12 5 1 6 16:24 16
13 Hyde 12 4 2 6 13:21 14
14 Ashton United 10 3 3 4 12:11 12
15 Whitby 11 4 0 7 17:32 12
16 Stockton 12 3 2 7 15:22 11
17 Leek Town 11 2 4 5 22:23 10
18 Quorn 11 2 4 5 18:27 10
19 AFC Emley 11 2 4 5 10:22 10
20 Bamber Bridge 11 2 3 6 16:31 9
21 Ilkeston 12 2 1 9 7:26 7
22 United of Manchester 10 1 2 7 12:20 5
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