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Ilkeston vs Stockton

England England

NPL Premier Division 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Scott J.

AI Match Summary

The NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 game between Ilkeston and Stockton finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Stockton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Ilkeston
20%
Draws
80%
Stockton
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Stockton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ilkeston come out ahead of Stockton on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Stockton's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Ilkeston Clean Sheet 10%
Stockton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ilkeston Stockton
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 10 8
Draws 5 9
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 1.13 1.26
Goals Conceded 1.6 1.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Ilkeston vs Stockton
1:0
Mar 14, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Ilkeston vs Stockton
0:1
Nov 1, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Stockton vs Ilkeston
0:4
Mar 22, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Stockton vs Ilkeston
1:0
Feb 18, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Ilkeston vs Stockton
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ilkeston Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Stockton Compare

Top Goalscorer Scott J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ilkeston 14 / 100
Stockton 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ilkeston Stockton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Stockton Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Stockton let in goals in 87% of their last 31 matches.

Attacking prowess: Ilkeston scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Away concern: Stockton has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ilkeston VS Stockton
0.5 Goals Scored 1.25
2.75 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Ilkeston

(Home)
26 Sept
Ilkeston
1 : 3
Anstey Nomads
12 Sept
Workington
3 : 1
Ilkeston
05 Sept
Leamington
3 : 1
Ilkeston
31 Aug
Ilkeston
0 : 2
Quorn
29 Aug
Bury FC
7 : 0
Ilkeston
Page 1 of 6

Stockton

(Away)
26 Sept
Warrington Rylands
3 : 1
Stockton
19 Sept
Stockton
5 : 2
Bamber Bridge
12 Sept
Warrington Rylands
1 : 1
Stockton
08 Sept
Guiseley
2 : 1
Stockton
05 Sept
Stockton
2 : 2
Guiseley
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hebburn Town 40 23 10 7 75:41 79
2 Hednesford 40 22 11 7 62:35 77
3 United of Manchester 40 21 9 10 65:41 72
4 Warrington Rylands 40 18 13 9 59:42 67
5 Stockton 40 18 12 10 62:50 63
6 Lancaster 40 17 11 12 56:45 62
7 Gainsborough 40 16 11 13 50:45 59
8 Leek Town 40 17 7 16 50:52 58
9 Cleethorpes 40 14 13 13 56:47 55
10 Ashton United 40 14 11 15 47:54 53
11 Ilkeston 40 15 7 18 52:54 52
12 Bamber Bridge 40 14 8 18 52:52 50
13 Guiseley 40 13 9 18 46:56 48
14 Warrington Town 40 12 12 16 43:63 48
15 Hyde 40 11 14 15 58:63 47
16 Rushall 40 12 11 17 48:61 47
17 Whitby 40 10 13 17 43:55 43
18 Workington 40 10 13 17 43:58 43
19 Prescot Cables 40 9 15 16 40:50 42
20 Morpeth 40 12 6 22 38:54 42
21 Stocksbridge 40 8 12 20 38:65 36
Promotion - National League North (Main)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 (Play Offs)