Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ilves vs Mariehamn

World World

Club Friendly
Sat, Mar 14, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ilves host Mariehamn in the Club Friendly. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Ilves at 1.72 goals for, 1.41 against; Mariehamn at 1 for, 1.75 against. Head-to-head, Ilves have won 2 to Mariehamn's 1, with 2 draws. They last met on Aug 9, 2026, ending 2:0. xG projections (1.88 - 0.69) back Ilves to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

77%
Ilves
15%
Draws
8%
Mariehamn
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ilves

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ilves come out ahead of Mariehamn on wins alone.
  • 77% — that's where the model lands on Ilves taking it.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Ilves Clean Sheet 20%
Mariehamn Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ilves Mariehamn
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 12 5
Draws 6 7
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 1.72 1
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Ilves vs Mariehamn
2:0
Apr 18, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs Ilves
2:2
Mar 14, 2026 Club Friendly
Ilves vs Mariehamn
0:0
Aug 31, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Ilves vs Mariehamn
2:1
Apr 27, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs Ilves
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ilves 67 / 100
Mariehamn 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ilves Mariehamn

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ilves Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ilves found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Mariehamn conceded in 89% of 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Ilves has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ilves VS Mariehamn
1.5 Goals Scored 0.38
1 Goals Conceded 2.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ilves

(Home)
09 Aug
Ilves
2 : 0
Mariehamn
06 Aug
Rijeka
1 : 0
Ilves
02 Aug
AC Oulu
1 : 0
Ilves
30 Jul
Ilves
3 : 1
Stjarnan
26 Jul
Ilves
1 : 0
Lahti
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Mariehamn

(Away)
09 Aug
Ilves
2 : 0
Mariehamn
01 Aug
TPS
3 : 0
Mariehamn
25 Jul
Mariehamn
1 : 1
AC Oulu
20 Jul
Mariehamn
0 : 2
Lahti
11 Jul
Gnistan
4 : 2
Mariehamn
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