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Ind. Medellin vs Aguilas Doradas

Colombia Colombia

Primera A Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ind. Medellin play Aguilas Doradas in the Primera A. It looks like a close match. Recently, Ind. Medellin averaged 1.29 goals scored and 1.19 conceded. Aguilas Doradas averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. In past meetings, Ind. Medellin won 1, Aguilas Doradas won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 3, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.21 for Ind. Medellin and 1.54 for Aguilas Doradas. This points to a Ind. Medellin double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Ind. Medellin
33%
Draws
33%
Aguilas Doradas
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Ind. Medellin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Ind. Medellin picked up more points recently compared to Aguilas Doradas.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.21 vs 1.54 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Ind. Medellin Clean Sheet 15%
Aguilas Doradas Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ind. Medellin Aguilas Doradas
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 13 12
Draws 9 9
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.29 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.57
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.29

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Primera A
Ind. Medellin vs Aguilas Doradas
1:2
Oct 8, 2025 Primera A
Aguilas Doradas vs Ind. Medellin
2:1
Mar 30, 2025 Primera A
Ind. Medellin vs Aguilas Doradas
0:0
Sep 15, 2024 Primera A
Aguilas Doradas vs Ind. Medellin
1:1
Mar 3, 2024 Primera A
Ind. Medellin vs Aguilas Doradas
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ind. Medellin Compare

Top Goalscorer Moreno D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Aguilas Doradas Compare

Top Goalscorer Rivaldo J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lara Vasquez N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.43
Avg xA / game 0.87

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ind. Medellin 34 / 100
Aguilas Doradas 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ind. Medellin Aguilas Doradas

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Ind. Medellin or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ind. Medellin attacking → ← attacking Aguilas Doradas

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ind. Medellin scored in 87% of their last 31 games.

Aguilas Doradas let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Ind. Medellin went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Aguilas Doradas lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

48 Points in last 5 45
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.57
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.29

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Atl. Nacional19131535:1540
2Junior19112631:2435
3Dep. Pasto19104529:2534
4America De Cali19103625:1533
5Once Caldas1989231:2233
6Deportes Tolima1987427:1731
7Santa Fe1978429:2229
8Inter Bogotá1977526:2628
9Dep. Cali1976620:1627
10Millonarios1975731:2326
11Ind. Medellin1975726:2426
12Aguilas Doradas1975720:2526
13Bucaramanga1958626:2023
14Llaneros19410517:2022
15Fortaleza C.E.I.F.1957722:2722
16Jaguares de Cordoba19531120:3318
17Alianza1938813:2717
18Chico19521215:3217
19Cucuta1937922:3516
20Dep. Pereira19171115:3210