Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ind. Medellin vs Dep. Pasto

Colombia Colombia

Primera A Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellín
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Mena J.
Assist: Palacios H.
7'
Garavito M.
30' Event
Cordoba S.
Assist: Goyes H.

AI Match Summary

The Primera A game between Ind. Medellin and Dep. Pasto finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ind. Medellin.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Ind. Medellin
6%
Draws
4%
Dep. Pasto
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Ind. Medellin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Ind. Medellin's 1 goals per match outpaces what Dep. Pasto have produced (0.71).
  • Ind. Medellin are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Primera A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 46.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Ind. Medellin Clean Sheet 68%
Dep. Pasto Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ind. Medellin Dep. Pasto
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 14 14
Draws 8 4
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1 0.71
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.71
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.57

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 Primera A
Ind. Medellin vs Dep. Pasto
3:2
Jan 18, 2026 Primera A
Dep. Pasto vs Ind. Medellin
1:0
Aug 19, 2025 Primera A
Dep. Pasto vs Ind. Medellin
1:2
Mar 4, 2025 Primera A
Ind. Medellin vs Dep. Pasto
1:0
Sep 9, 2024 Primera A
Dep. Pasto vs Ind. Medellin
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ind. Medellin Compare

Top Goalscorer Mena J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Palacios H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Dep. Pasto Compare

Top Goalscorer Cordoba S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Micolta Piedahita J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.39

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ind. Medellin 95 / 100
Dep. Pasto 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ind. Medellin Dep. Pasto

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick IND Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ind. Medellin found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (31 games).

Difficult form: Dep. Pasto registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Dep. Pasto's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Scoring Trends

Ind. Medellin VS Dep. Pasto
1 Goals Scored 0.71
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.57
50% Over 1.5 43%
38% Over 2.5 29%
13% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Ind. Medellin

(Home)
25 Jul
Ind. Medellin
3 : 2
Dep. Pasto
22 Jul
Ind. Medellin
2 : 2
Vasco
02 Jun
Ind. Medellin
2 : 1
Cucuta
29 May
Leones
1 : 1
Ind. Medellin
27 May
Estudiantes L.P.
1 : 0
Ind. Medellin
Page 1 of 7

Dep. Pasto

(Away)
25 Jul
Ind. Medellin
3 : 2
Dep. Pasto
22 Jul
Dep. Pasto
0 : 1
Bogota
13 May
Dep. Pasto
0 : 2
Deportes Tolima
09 May
Deportes Tolima
1 : 0
Dep. Pasto
03 May
Junior
4 : 3
Dep. Pasto
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Dep. Cali11002:03
2Ind. Medellin11003:23
3Deportes Tolima11002:13
4Bucaramanga11001:03
5Llaneros11001:03
6Chico00000:00
7America De Cali00000:00
8Santa Fe00000:00
9Inter Bogotá00000:00
10Atl. Nacional00000:00
11Cucuta00000:00
12Once Caldas00000:00
13Aguilas Doradas00000:00
14Alianza00000:00
15Fortaleza C.E.I.F.00000:00
16Dep. Pasto10012:30
17Junior10011:20
18Millonarios10010:10
19Dep. Pereira10010:10
20Jaguares de Cordoba10010:20
Promotion - Primera A (Clausura - Quadrangular)