Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Independente AP vs Oratorio Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Amapaense 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

57' Event
Rondineles L.
89' Event
Rondineles L.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-0, with Independente AP advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
Independente AP
35%
Draws
9%
Oratorio
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Independente AP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Oratorio carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Independente AP a 56% chance of winning this.
  • Oratorio arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Independente AP, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Independente AP Clean Sheet 68%
Oratorio Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Independente AP Oratorio
Matches Played 37 43
Wins 15 18
Draws 12 8
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 1.51 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.52 1.74
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Amapaense
Independente AP vs Oratorio
3:0
May 3, 2025 Amapaense
Independente AP vs Oratorio
2:0
Apr 26, 2025 Amapaense
Oratorio vs Independente AP
2:0
Mar 23, 2025 Amapaense
Oratorio vs Independente AP
0:2
Jul 9, 2024 Amapaense
Independente AP vs Oratorio
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Independente AP Compare

Top Goalscorer Rondineles L.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.17
Avg xA / game 0.76

Oratorio Compare

Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Independente AP 95 / 100
Oratorio 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Independente AP Oratorio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Independente AP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Independente AP scored in 73% of their last 37 outings.

Oratorio has conceded goals in 74% of their last 43 outings.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Independente AP has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Independente AP VS Oratorio
1.8 Goals Scored 1.88
1.6 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 100%
80% Over 2.5 75%
60% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Independente AP

(Home)
23 Mar
SAO Jose
2 : 2
Independente AP
20 Mar
Independente AP
2 : 2
SAO Jose
17 Mar
Independente AP
1 : 2
SAO Jose
13 Mar
Independente AP
1 : 1
Ypiranga AP
09 Mar
Macapa
1 : 3
Independente AP
Page 1 of 8

Oratorio

(Away)
06 Jun
Tocantinopolis
7 : 1
Oratorio
31 May
Oratorio
0 : 1
Imperatriz
24 May
Oratorio
3 : 3
Tuna Luso
17 May
Trem
4 : 2
Oratorio
10 May
Aguia De Maraba
5 : 1
Oratorio
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Trem 4
Santos AP 1
Oratorio 2
Independente AP 2
Final
Trem 2
Oratorio 1