Sport Picks
Independente SP vs Flamengo SP
Brazil
Paulista B 
Match Events
45'
45'
Domingos Calegari B.
1'
1'
Silva L.
Penalty Missed
1'
1'
Hiago
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 2-0. This leg finished 2-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
15%
49%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Flamengo SP
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
36%
/ Low Confidence
- Independente SP have won more games recently than Flamengo SP.
- Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
- Independente SP have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Independente SP, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Independente SP Clean Sheet 68%
Flamengo SP Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Independente SP | Flamengo SP |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 33 | 34 |
| Wins | 20 | 18 |
| Draws | 4 | 9 |
| Losses | 9 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 2.27 | 1.32 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.03 | 0.85 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.94 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 2, 2026 Paulista B
Independente SP vs Flamengo SP
2:0
Jul 25, 2026 Paulista B
Flamengo SP vs Independente SP
1:0
May 31, 2025 Paulista B
Flamengo SP vs Independente SP
2:4
Apr 27, 2025 Paulista B
Independente SP vs Flamengo SP
2:2
Mar 26, 2017 Paulista A3
Flamengo SP vs Independente SP
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Independente SP Compare
Top Goalscorer Domingos Calegari B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97
Flamengo SP Compare
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Independente SP 41 / 100
Flamengo SP 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Independente SP Flamengo SP
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Independente SP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
Attacking prowess: Independente SP scored in 73% of their last 33 outings.
Solid form: Independente SP remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Flamengo SP let in goals in 56% of their last 34 matches.
Scoring Trends
Independente SP VS Flamengo SP
3.5 Goals Scored 1.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 25%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Independente SP
(Home) 16 Aug
Independente SP
4 : 1 America SP
09 Aug
America SP
2 : 0 Independente SP
02 Aug
Independente SP
2 : 0 Flamengo SP
25 Jul
Flamengo SP
1 : 0 Independente SP
19 Jul
Independente SP
2 : 1 Paulinense
Page 1 of 7
16 Aug
Independente SP
4 : 1 America SP
02 Aug
Independente SP
2 : 0 Flamengo SP
19 Jul
Independente SP
2 : 1 Paulinense
05 Jul
Independente SP
2 : 0 Tupa
20 Jun
Independente SP
17 : 0 Catanduvense
Page 1 of 4
Flamengo SP
(Away) 02 Aug
Independente SP
2 : 0 Flamengo SP
25 Jul
Flamengo SP
1 : 0 Independente SP
18 Jul
Flamengo SP
3 : 1 Matonense
11 Jul
Matonense
0 : 1 Flamengo SP
04 Jul
Flamengo SP
2 : 1 Audax-SP
Page 1 of 7
02 Aug
Independente SP
2 : 0 Flamengo SP
11 Jul
Matonense
0 : 1 Flamengo SP
28 Jun
Audax-SP
0 : 0 Flamengo SP
20 Jun
Audax-SP
0 : 1 Flamengo SP
07 Jun
Paulinense
0 : 1 Flamengo SP
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/8-finals
Independente SP 4
Tupa 0
Paulinense 3
Sao Carlos 0
Flamengo SP 2
Audax-SP 1
Matonense 1
Assisense 0
Itaqua 6
Paulinia FU 1
Maua FC 3
Uniao Mogi 5
Jose Bonifacio EC 4
Manthiqueira 1
America SP 3
Santacruzense 0
Quarter-finals
Independente SP 3
Paulinense 1
Flamengo SP 4
Matonense 1
Itaqua 5
Uniao Mogi 1
Jose Bonifacio EC 2
America SP 4
Semi-finals
Independente SP 2
Flamengo SP 1
Itaqua 1
America SP 4
Final
Independente SP 4
America SP 3
