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Independente SP vs Francana

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Independente SP play Francana in the Paulista A4 2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, Independente SP averaged 2.28 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. Francana averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. In past meetings, Independente SP won 2, Francana won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 23, 2024 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.04 for Independente SP and 0.81 for Francana. This points to a Independente SP double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Independente SP
15%
Draws
31%
Francana
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Independente SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence
  • Independente SP picked up more points recently compared to Francana.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.04 vs 0.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
Independente SP Clean Sheet 26%
Francana Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Independente SP Francana
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 16 7
Draws 3 9
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 2.28 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.57

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 23, 2024 Paulista A4
Independente SP vs Francana
0:2
Aug 12, 2023 Paulista A4
Independente SP vs Francana
1:2
Aug 6, 2023 Paulista A4
Francana vs Independente SP
2:0
Aug 11, 2019 Paulista A4
Francana vs Independente SP
0:1
Jul 6, 2019 Paulista A4
Independente SP vs Francana
1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Independente SP 54 / 100
Francana 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Independente SP Francana

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Independente SP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Independente SP & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.2%
2.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.8%
2.78
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Independente SP attacking → ← attacking Francana

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Independente SP scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Francana let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Independente SP went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Francana lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

51 Points in last 5 30
2.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.57

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Uniao Sao Joao62405:310
2Nacional SP62314:49
3XV de Jau62135:57
4Jacarei FC61234:65
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Catanduva FC63307:412
2Rio Branco SP62229:78
3Penapolense61416:57
4Jabaquara60333:93
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Uniao Barbarense62403:110
2America SP61418:87
3Sao-Carlense62135:67
4Vocem61326:76
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Francana641110:613
2Taquaritinga64029:612
3SKA Brasil63127:610
4Independente SP60063:110