Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Independiente FBC vs Martin Ledesma

Paraguay Paraguay

Division Intermedia 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Independiente FBC play Martin Ledesma in the Division Intermedia 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Independiente FBC averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.48 conceded. Martin Ledesma averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Independiente FBC won 1, Martin Ledesma won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Oct 12, 2024 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.17 for Independiente FBC and 1.06 for Martin Ledesma. This points to a Martin Ledesma double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Independiente FBC
27%
Draws
38%
Martin Ledesma
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Martin Ledesma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Independiente FBC picked up more points recently compared to Martin Ledesma.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.17 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 41%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%
Independiente FBC Clean Sheet 22%
Martin Ledesma Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Independiente FBC Martin Ledesma
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 10 8
Draws 6 12
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 1.23 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 12, 2024 Division Intermedia
Independiente FBC vs Martin Ledesma
1:3
Jul 7, 2024 Division Intermedia
Martin Ledesma vs Independiente FBC
2:0
Sep 11, 2023 Division Intermedia
Independiente FBC vs Martin Ledesma
1:2
Jun 4, 2023 Division Intermedia
Martin Ledesma vs Independiente FBC
0:4
Jul 30, 2022 Division Intermedia
Martin Ledesma vs Independiente FBC
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Independiente FBC Compare

Top Goalscorer Rolon L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Martin Ledesma Compare

Top Goalscorer Estigarribia L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Chaparro S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Independiente FBC 36 / 100
Martin Ledesma 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Independiente FBC Martin Ledesma

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Martin Ledesma or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.3%
2.86
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Independiente FBC attacking → ← attacking Martin Ledesma

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Independiente FBC scored in 71% of their last 31 games.

Martin Ledesma let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Independiente FBC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Martin Ledesma lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 36
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Recoleta30198357:2065
2Atletico Tembetary30195646:2462
3Sportivo Carapegua30177645:2758
4San Lorenzo301210835:3146
5Resistencia301361135:3545
6Encarnacion FC301281043:3944
7Deportivo Santani301191035:3342
8Rubio Nu301191033:3542
9Guairena FC301011930:2538
1012 de Junio301081235:3538
11Independiente FBC301081233:3738
12Martin Ledesma308121028:3536
13Fernando de la Mora308111131:3335
143 de Febrero306111324:3729
15Pastoreo30651928:5023
16Colegiales30242428:7010