Sport Picks
Independiente FBC vs Nacional Asuncion - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Paraguay
Copa Paraguay La Arboleda, Asunción 
Match Events
6'
6'
Diarra D.
29'
29'
Melgarejo R.
55'
55'
Espinola C.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-2. This leg finished 3-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
54%
15%
31%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Independiente FBC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
54%
/ Medium Confidence
- Nacional Asuncion have won more games recently than Independiente FBC.
- Independiente FBC are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Nacional Asuncion arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Nacional Asuncion, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Independiente FBC Clean Sheet 68%
Nacional Asuncion Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Independiente FBC | Nacional Asuncion |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 13 |
| Draws | 11 | 10 |
| Losses | 7 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.41 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.21 | 0.9 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.06 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 30, 2026 Copa Paraguay
Independiente FBC vs Nacional Asuncion
3:2
Oct 7, 2018 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Independiente FBC
0:3
Jul 23, 2018 Copa de Primera
Independiente FBC vs Nacional Asuncion
2:2
Apr 20, 2018 Copa de Primera
Nacional Asuncion vs Independiente FBC
1:0
Feb 9, 2018 Copa de Primera
Independiente FBC vs Nacional Asuncion
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Independiente FBC Compare
Top Goalscorer Diarra D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Sarquis E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53
Nacional Asuncion Compare
Top Goalscorer Melgarejo R.
1 Goals Assists Leader Espinola C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Independiente FBC 95 / 100
Nacional Asuncion 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Independiente FBC Nacional Asuncion
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Independiente FBC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
Independiente FBC found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).
Solid form: Independiente FBC remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Nacional Asuncion's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.
Scoring Trends
Independiente FBC VS Nacional Asuncion
1.5 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Independiente FBC
(Home) 30 Sept
Independiente FBC
3 : 2 Nacional Asuncion
25 Sept
Independiente FBC
0 : 1 Sportivo Carapegua
20 Sept
12 de Junio
0 : 4 Independiente FBC
14 Sept
Independiente FBC
1 : 0 Encarnacion FC
09 Sept
Deportivo Santani
1 : 2 Independiente FBC
Page 1 of 6
30 Sept
Independiente FBC
3 : 2 Nacional Asuncion
25 Sept
Independiente FBC
0 : 1 Sportivo Carapegua
14 Sept
Independiente FBC
1 : 0 Encarnacion FC
04 Sept
Independiente FBC
0 : 0 Fernando de la Mora
22 Aug
Independiente FBC
0 : 0 General Caballero JLM
Page 1 of 4
Nacional Asuncion
(Away) 30 Sept
Independiente FBC
3 : 2 Nacional Asuncion
25 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
1 : 1 Sportivo Ameliano
18 Sept
Nacional Asuncion
3 : 0 2 de Mayo
13 Sept
Rubio Nu
0 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
07 Sept
Cerro Porteno
1 : 0 Nacional Asuncion
Page 1 of 6
30 Sept
Independiente FBC
3 : 2 Nacional Asuncion
13 Sept
Rubio Nu
0 : 1 Nacional Asuncion
07 Sept
Cerro Porteno
1 : 0 Nacional Asuncion
28 Aug
San Lorenzo
0 : 3 Nacional Asuncion
18 Aug
Benjamin Aceval
0 : 2 Nacional Asuncion
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Resistencia 0
Cerro Porteno 1
General Caballero JLM 2
Rubio Nu 3
29 de Septiembre FBC 1
San Lorenzo 2
4 de Mayo 3
Fulgencio Yegros 2
1 de Marzo Pilar 2
Atletico Tembetary 3
Sportivo Iteno 2
Guarani 1
Deportivo Humaita FBC 1
2 de Mayo 4
Sol de America 2
Sportivo Trinidense 1
Cristobal Colon FC 3
Olimpia Asuncion 5
Paraguari AC 0
Sp. Luqueno 2
Deportivo Santani 0
Recoleta 2
Guairena FC 3
12 de Octubre 2
Obrero 0
Fernando de la Mora 3
Tacuary 0
Libertad Asuncion 1
Independiente FBC 1
Sportivo Ameliano 0
Benjamin Aceval 0
Nacional Asuncion 2
1/8-finals
Cerro Porteno 2
Rubio Nu 1
San Lorenzo 2
4 de Mayo 1
Atletico Tembetary 2
Sportivo Iteno 0
2 de Mayo 0
Sol de America 4
Olimpia Asuncion 1
Sp. Luqueno 2
Recoleta 3
Guairena FC 1
Fernando de la Mora 1
Libertad Asuncion 2
Independiente FBC 3
Nacional Asuncion 2
Quarter-finals
Cerro Porteno -
San Lorenzo -
Atletico Tembetary -
Sol de America -
Sp. Luqueno -
Recoleta -
Libertad Asuncion -
Independiente FBC -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
