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Independiente Juniors vs EL Nacional

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Serie B
Independiente Juniors Logo

Independiente Juniors

1 - 1
FT
EL Nacional Logo

EL Nacional

Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
60' Event
Benalcazar L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Serie B game between Independiente Juniors and EL Nacional finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Independiente Juniors
30%
Draws
31%
EL Nacional
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Independiente Juniors

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Independiente Juniors carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Independiente Juniors Clean Sheet 20%
EL Nacional Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Independiente Juniors EL Nacional
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 4
Draws 11 6
Losses 6 19
Goals Scored 1.24 0.83
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 20, 2026 Serie B
Independiente Juniors vs EL Nacional
1:1
Mar 21, 2026 Serie B
EL Nacional vs Independiente Juniors
0:1
Oct 1, 2022 Serie B
EL Nacional vs Independiente Juniors
1:1
Aug 24, 2022 Serie B
Independiente Juniors vs EL Nacional
4:1
Jul 28, 2022 Serie B
EL Nacional vs Independiente Juniors
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Independiente Juniors Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

EL Nacional Compare

Top Goalscorer Benalcazar L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Independiente Juniors 31 / 100
EL Nacional 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Independiente Juniors EL Nacional

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Independiente Juniors Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

EL Nacional let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

Attacking prowess: Independiente Juniors scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Independiente Juniors remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Independiente Juniors VS EL Nacional
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Independiente Juniors

(Home)
24 Sept
Independiente Juniors
2 : 3
Vinotinto
17 Sept
Independiente Juniors
1 : 1
Atletico FC
12 Sept
Nueve de Octubre
3 : 1
Independiente Juniors
04 Sept
Independiente Juniors
1 : 0
CD Cuenca Juniors
27 Aug
San Antonio
0 : 0
Independiente Juniors
Page 1 of 6

EL Nacional

(Away)
18 Sept
Dep. Santo Domingo
1 : 0
EL Nacional
12 Sept
EL Nacional
3 : 0
22 de Julio
05 Sept
EL Nacional
0 : 2
LDU Portoviejo
29 Aug
Gualaceo
3 : 0
EL Nacional
20 Aug
Independiente Juniors
1 : 1
EL Nacional
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente Juniors 22 10 9 3 28:16 39
2 Atletico FC 22 9 11 2 25:14 38
3 Nueve de Octubre 22 9 10 3 22:14 37
4 CD Cuenca Juniors 22 9 7 6 20:23 34
5 Vinotinto 22 8 7 7 25:17 31
6 San Antonio 22 7 10 5 24:21 31
7 LDU Portoviejo 22 7 6 9 17:22 27
8 Cumbaya 22 5 11 6 22:22 26
9 Dep. Santo Domingo 22 6 10 6 17:16 25
10 Gualaceo 22 7 8 7 19:16 23
11 EL Nacional 22 2 6 14 15:32 9
12 22 de Julio 22 4 3 15 10:31 9
Promotion - Serie B (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Serie B (Relegation Group)