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Independiente vs A. Lima

South America South America

Serie Rio de la Plata Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Sub
Gaibor F. In: Castillo J.
Out: Gaibor F.
24'
Valenzuela M.
45'
Pussetto I.

AI Match Summary

Independiente in this Serie Rio de la Plata matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Independiente.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Independiente
20%
Draws
29%
A. Lima
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Independiente

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to A. Lima lately — more wins on the board than Independiente.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Independiente Clean Sheet 20%
A. Lima Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Independiente A. Lima
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 14
Draws 6 8
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 1.38 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.34 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2026 Serie Rio de la Plata
Independiente vs A. Lima
2:1
Jun 1, 2017 Copa Sudamericana
A. Lima vs Independiente
0:1
Apr 5, 2017 Copa Sudamericana
Independiente vs A. Lima
0:0
Jun 4, 1964 Copa Libertadores
A. Lima vs Independiente
2:2
May 31, 1964 Copa Libertadores
Independiente vs A. Lima
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Independiente Compare

Top Goalscorer Abaldo M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Montiel S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

A. Lima Compare

Top Goalscorer Cantero A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Independiente 36 / 100
A. Lima 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Independiente A. Lima

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick A. Lima Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Independiente scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: A. Lima conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Independiente stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Independiente VS A. Lima
0.63 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Independiente

(Home)
02 Oct
Independiente
1 : 4
Instituto
19 Sept
Union de Santa Fe
1 : 2
Independiente
13 Sept
Independiente
1 : 1
San Lorenzo
06 Sept
Central Cordoba (Santiago del Estero)
0 : 1
Independiente
30 Aug
Independiente
0 : 3
Gimnasia Mendoza
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A. Lima

(Away)
01 Oct
A. Lima
1 : 2
Palestino
19 Sept
A. Lima
2 : 0
AD Tarma
13 Sept
A. Lima
1 : 2
Universitario de Deportes
06 Sept
Juan Pablo II
1 : 1
A. Lima
30 Aug
A. Lima
0 : 1
Deportivo Garcilaso
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