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Independiente vs Newells Old Boys

Argentina Argentina

Liga Profesional Estadio Libertadores de América, Avellaneda
Independiente Logo

Independiente

1 - 0
FT
Newells Old Boys Logo

Newells Old Boys

Our Tip

Match Events

31'
Sub
Nunez W. In: Rios T.
Out: Nunez W.
41' Event
Montiel S.
43'
Fedorco J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga Profesional game between Independiente and Newells Old Boys finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Independiente.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Independiente
35%
Draws
34%
Newells Old Boys
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Newells Old Boys haven't matched Independiente's recent run of results.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 37%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Independiente Clean Sheet 20%
Newells Old Boys Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Independiente Newells Old Boys
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 13 7
Draws 8 10
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.37 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 31, 2026 Liga Profesional
Independiente vs Newells Old Boys
1:0
Jan 28, 2026 Liga Profesional
Newells Old Boys vs Independiente
1:1
Nov 26, 2024 Liga Profesional
Newells Old Boys vs Independiente
2:1
Jul 11, 2023 Liga Profesional
Independiente vs Newells Old Boys
0:2
Sep 24, 2022 Liga Profesional
Independiente vs Newells Old Boys
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Independiente Compare

Top Goalscorer Montiel S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Newells Old Boys Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Independiente 32 / 100
Newells Old Boys 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Independiente Newells Old Boys

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Independiente's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Newells Old Boys conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Independiente has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Independiente VS Newells Old Boys
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Independiente

(Home)
19 Sept
Union de Santa Fe
1 : 2
Independiente
13 Sept
Independiente
1 : 1
San Lorenzo
06 Sept
Central Cordoba (Santiago del Estero)
0 : 1
Independiente
30 Aug
Independiente
0 : 3
Gimnasia Mendoza
22 Aug
Independiente
0 : 0
Ind. Rivadavia
Page 1 of 6

Newells Old Boys

(Away)
11 Sept
Newells Old Boys
1 : 1
Velez Sarsfield
06 Sept
Rosario Central
1 : 1
Newells Old Boys
31 Aug
Estudiantes L.P.
0 : 0
Newells Old Boys
23 Aug
Newells Old Boys
2 : 1
Banfield
15 Aug
Newells Old Boys
2 : 0
Deportivo Riestra
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Instituto 9 6 1 2 10:6 19
2 Defensa y Justicia 10 5 3 2 13:11 18
3 Gimnasia Mendoza 10 5 2 3 14:9 17
4 Velez Sarsfield 9 4 5 0 12:7 17
5 Independiente 10 5 2 3 10:8 17
6 Boca Juniors 9 3 5 1 12:11 14
7 Lanus 9 4 1 4 11:8 13
8 Newells Old Boys 9 3 4 2 10:8 13
9 Union de Santa Fe 10 4 1 5 17:16 13
10 San Lorenzo 9 3 2 4 4:6 11
11 Estudiantes L.P. 9 3 1 5 9:9 10
12 Deportivo Riestra 10 2 4 4 8:10 10
13 Platense 9 2 3 4 9:14 9
14 Talleres Cordoba 9 2 2 5 10:14 8
15 Central Cordoba (Santiago del Estero) 10 2 2 6 7:13 8
Promotion - Liga Profesional (Clausura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Argentinos Jrs 9 5 3 1 13:8 18
2 Gimnasia L.P. 10 5 2 3 15:15 17
3 Huracan 10 4 4 2 10:8 16
4 Sarmiento Junin 10 5 1 4 17:16 16
5 Rosario Central 9 4 3 2 10:8 15
6 Ind. Rivadavia 9 4 2 3 13:13 14
7 CA Belgrano de Cordoba 9 3 4 2 9:6 13
8 Atl. Tucuman 9 3 4 2 7:5 13
9 River Plate 10 4 1 5 13:12 13
10 Tigre 9 3 3 3 7:6 12
11 Barracas Central 9 3 3 3 5:6 12
12 Banfield 10 2 3 5 11:16 9
13 Racing Club 10 2 2 6 11:16 8
14 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 9 1 3 5 4:11 6
15 Aldosivi 9 1 2 6 11:16 5
Promotion - Liga Profesional (Clausura - Play Offs)