Sport Picks
Independiente vs San Lorenzo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Argentina
Liga Profesional Estadio Libertadores de América, Avellaneda 
Match Events
6'
6'
Perruzzi I.
7'
7'
Arrayago J.
Assist: Montiel S.
26'
26'
Marcone I.
AI Match Summary
The Liga Profesional game between Independiente and San Lorenzo finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
18%
35%
47%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: San Lorenzo
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Independiente carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
- Regular Liga Profesional form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Independiente Clean Sheet 24%
San Lorenzo Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Independiente | San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 31 |
| Wins | 11 | 8 |
| Draws | 8 | 13 |
| Losses | 10 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.24 | 0.74 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.31 | 0.9 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.88 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 13, 2026 Liga Profesional
Independiente vs San Lorenzo
1:1
May 2, 2026 Liga Profesional
San Lorenzo vs Independiente
1:2
Sep 21, 2025 Liga Profesional
Independiente vs San Lorenzo
1:1
Mar 8, 2025 Liga Profesional
San Lorenzo vs Independiente
1:2
Aug 3, 2024 Liga Profesional
Independiente vs San Lorenzo
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Independiente Compare
Top Goalscorer Arrayago J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44
San Lorenzo Compare
Top Goalscorer Farias F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Independiente 37 / 100
San Lorenzo 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Independiente San Lorenzo
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick San Lorenzo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Independiente scored in 72% of their last 29 games.
These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.
Recent resilience: Independiente stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
San Lorenzo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 58% of 31 matches.
Scoring Trends
Independiente VS San Lorenzo
0.75 Goals Scored 0.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Independiente
(Home) 02 Nov
Defensa y Justicia
1 : 1 Independiente
25 Oct
Independiente
0 : 1 Boca Juniors
18 Oct
Racing Club
1 : 1 Independiente
12 Oct
Talleres Cordoba
0 : 0 Independiente
02 Oct
Independiente
1 : 4 Instituto
Page 1 of 6
25 Oct
Independiente
0 : 1 Boca Juniors
02 Oct
Independiente
1 : 4 Instituto
13 Sept
Independiente
1 : 1 San Lorenzo
30 Aug
Independiente
0 : 3 Gimnasia Mendoza
22 Aug
Independiente
0 : 0 Ind. Rivadavia
Page 1 of 3
San Lorenzo
(Away) 31 Oct
Velez Sarsfield
2 : 2 San Lorenzo
24 Oct
San Lorenzo
0 : 0 Newells Old Boys
18 Oct
Estudiantes L.P.
1 : 2 San Lorenzo
11 Oct
San Lorenzo
1 : 0 Deportivo Riestra
03 Oct
Defensa y Justicia
3 : 0 San Lorenzo
Page 1 of 7
31 Oct
Velez Sarsfield
2 : 2 San Lorenzo
18 Oct
Estudiantes L.P.
1 : 2 San Lorenzo
03 Oct
Defensa y Justicia
3 : 0 San Lorenzo
13 Sept
Independiente
1 : 1 San Lorenzo
01 Sept
Instituto
1 : 0 San Lorenzo
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 24:13 | 33 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 23:14 | 30 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 25:15 | 28 |
| 4 | Defensa y Justicia | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 21:14 | 28 |
| 5 | Lanus | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 18:11 | 25 |
| 6 | Newells Old Boys | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 14:11 | 22 |
| 7 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 17:16 | 21 |
| 8 | Independiente | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 13:15 | 20 |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 9:14 | 19 |
| 10 | Union de Santa Fe | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 22:24 | 18 |
| 11 | Platense | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 16:20 | 17 |
| 12 | Estudiantes L.P. | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 20:21 | 15 |
| 13 | Talleres Cordoba | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 16:22 | 12 |
| 14 | Deportivo Riestra | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10:17 | 12 |
| 15 | Central Cordoba (Santiago del Estero) | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11:25 | 10 |
Promotion - Liga Profesional (Clausura - Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rosario Central | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 24:12 | 31 |
| 2 | Argentinos Jrs | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 20:12 | 31 |
| 3 | Gimnasia L.P. | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23:19 | 28 |
| 4 | River Plate | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 19:14 | 23 |
| 5 | CA Belgrano de Cordoba | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16:13 | 23 |
| 6 | Barracas Central | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 15:13 | 23 |
| 7 | Ind. Rivadavia | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 20:23 | 22 |
| 8 | Sarmiento Junin | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 23:23 | 21 |
| 9 | Huracan | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 12:16 | 19 |
| 10 | Atl. Tucuman | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 14:15 | 17 |
| 11 | Tigre | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15:16 | 16 |
| 12 | Racing Club | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16:22 | 15 |
| 13 | Banfield | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 16:23 | 14 |
| 14 | Aldosivi | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 16:24 | 11 |
| 15 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10:21 | 9 |
Promotion - Liga Profesional (Clausura - Play Offs)
