Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Indonesia U23 vs Timor-Leste U23

Asia Asia

AFF Championship U23 2023
Indonesia U23 Logo

Indonesia U23

1 - 0
FT
Timor-Leste U23 Logo

Timor-Leste U23

Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Sananta R.
46'
Sub
Rahaman A. In: Sahrul E.
Out: Rahaman A.
46'
Sub
Figo Pinto L. In: Brito S.
Out: Figo Pinto L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The AFF Championship U23 2023 game between Indonesia U23 and Timor-Leste U23 finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Indonesia U23.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Indonesia U23
30%
Draws
47%
Timor-Leste U23
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Timor-Leste U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Indonesia U23 come out ahead of Timor-Leste U23 on wins alone.
  • Indonesia U23 are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this AFF Championship U23 2023 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Indonesia U23 here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.4%
Indonesia U23 Clean Sheet 20%
Timor-Leste U23 Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Indonesia U23 Timor-Leste U23
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 15 8
Draws 4 3
Losses 13 20
Goals Scored 1.75 1.45
Goals Conceded 0.97 3.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 20, 2023 ASEAN Championship U23
Indonesia U23 vs Timor-Leste U23
1:0
May 10, 2022 Southeast Asian Games
Indonesia U23 vs Timor-Leste U23
4:1
Aug 20, 2017 Southeast Asian Games
Timor-Leste U23 vs Indonesia U23
0:1
Mar 27, 2015 AFC Asian Cup U23
Indonesia U23 vs Timor-Leste U23
5:0
Sep 15, 2014 Asian Games
Timor-Leste U23 vs Indonesia U23
0:7

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Indonesia U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Sananta R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Timor-Leste U23 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Indonesia U23 42 / 100
Timor-Leste U23 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Indonesia U23 Timor-Leste U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Indonesia U23 scored in 63% of their last 32 outings.

Timor-Leste U23 let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Difficult form: Timor-Leste U23 registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Indonesia U23 VS Timor-Leste U23
1.5 Goals Scored 2.2
0.88 Goals Conceded 3.2
50% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 100%
13% Over 3.5 80%

Recent Form & Match History

Indonesia U23

(Home)
18 Nov
Indonesia U23
2 : 2
Mali U23
15 Nov
Indonesia U23
0 : 3
Mali U23
13 Oct
Indonesia U23
1 : 1
India U23
10 Oct
Indonesia U23
1 : 2
India U23
09 Sept
South Korea U23
1 : 0
Indonesia U23
Page 1 of 7

Timor-Leste U23

(Away)
09 Sept
Timor-Leste U23
6 : 0
Northern Mariana Islands U23
06 Sept
Timor-Leste U23
0 : 6
Australia U23
03 Sept
China U23
2 : 1
Timor-Leste U23
19 Jul
Timor-Leste U23
0 : 4
Thailand U23
16 Jul
Myanmar U23
4 : 4
Timor-Leste U23
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Thailand U23 3 3 0 0 8:0 9
2 Cambodia U23 3 1 1 1 6:3 4
3 Myanmar U23 3 1 1 1 5:5 4
4 Brunei U23 3 0 0 3 1:12 0
Promotion - AFF Championship U23 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Malaysia U23 2 2 0 0 5:2 6
2 Indonesia U23 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
3 Timor-Leste U23 2 0 0 2 1:4 0
Promotion - AFF Championship U23 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vietnam U23 2 2 0 0 5:1 6
2 Philippines U23 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
3 Laos U23 2 0 1 1 3:6 1
Promotion - AFF Championship U23 2023 (Play Offs)