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Indonesia vs Bangladesh - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Asia Asia

FIFA ASEAN Cup Gelora Bung Karno Stadium, Jakarta
Indonesia Logo

Indonesia

9 - 2
FT
Bangladesh Logo

Bangladesh

Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Lee Baker M.
Assist: Romeny O.
20' Event
Lee Baker M.
27'
Sub
Shome S. In: Rana S.
Out: Shome S.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 9-2. The second leg ended 9-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Indonesia
20%
Draws
22%
Bangladesh
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Indonesia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Indonesia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Indonesia taking it.
  • Indonesia have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Indonesia, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.8%
Indonesia Clean Sheet 20%
Bangladesh Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Indonesia Bangladesh
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 13 6
Draws 6 7
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 1.72 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.96
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 1, 2026 FIFA ASEAN Cup
Indonesia vs Bangladesh
9:2
Jun 1, 2022 Friendly International
Indonesia vs Bangladesh
0:0
Jan 27, 2022 Friendly International
Indonesia vs Bangladesh
0:0
Jan 24, 2022 Friendly International
Indonesia vs Bangladesh
0:0
Apr 1, 1985 World Championship
Bangladesh vs Indonesia
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Indonesia Compare

Top Goalscorer Lee Baker M.
5 Goals
Assists Leader Ridho R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Bangladesh Compare

Top Goalscorer Emon S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ali Wahid F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Indonesia 85 / 100
Bangladesh 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Indonesia Bangladesh

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Indonesia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Indonesia found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Bangladesh's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Indonesia has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Indonesia VS Bangladesh
2.13 Goals Scored 0.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Indonesia

(Home)
01 Oct
Indonesia
9 : 2
Bangladesh
28 Sept
Malaysia
0 : 0
Indonesia
25 Sept
Indonesia
2 : 0
Singapore
07 Aug
Singapore
1 : 1
Indonesia
03 Aug
Indonesia
0 : 3
Vietnam
Page 1 of 6

Bangladesh

(Away)
01 Oct
Indonesia
9 : 2
Bangladesh
28 Sept
Singapore
1 : 0
Bangladesh
25 Sept
Bangladesh
0 : 3
Malaysia
05 Jun
San Marino
1 : 2
Bangladesh
31 Mar
Singapore
1 : 0
Bangladesh
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Indonesia 3 2 1 0 11:2 7
2 Malaysia 3 2 1 0 9:0 7
3 Singapore 3 1 0 2 1:8 3
4 Bangladesh 3 0 0 3 2:13 0
Promotion - FIFA ASEAN Cup (Division 1 - Play Offs)
Promotion - FIFA ASEAN Cup (Division 1 - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Thailand 3 2 0 1 7:2 6
2 Vietnam 3 2 0 1 5:4 6
3 Philippines 3 1 1 1 4:4 4
4 Pakistan 3 0 1 2 4:10 1
Promotion - FIFA ASEAN Cup (Division 1 - Play Offs)
Promotion - FIFA ASEAN Cup (Division 1 - Play Offs)