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Indonesia vs China

World World

World Championship 2026 Bung Karno Stadium
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AI Match Summary

Indonesia play China in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Indonesia averaged 1.24 goals scored and 1.34 conceded. China averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, Indonesia won 1, China won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 5, 2025 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Indonesia and 1.00 for China. This points to a Indonesia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Indonesia
20%
Draws
37%
China
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Indonesia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Indonesia picked up more points recently compared to China.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33%
Indonesia Clean Sheet 23%
China Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 57%
Second Half Goal 60%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Indonesia China
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 9
Draws 6 6
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 1.24 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 5, 2025 World Championship
Indonesia vs China
1:0
Oct 15, 2024 World Championship
China vs Indonesia
2:1
Nov 15, 2013 Asian Cup
China vs Indonesia
1:0
Oct 15, 2013 Asian Cup
Indonesia vs China
1:1
Jul 21, 2004 Asian Cup
Indonesia vs China
0:5

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Indonesia 43 / 100
China 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Indonesia China

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Indonesia or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23%
2.86
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.2%
2.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Indonesia attacking → ← attacking China

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Indonesia scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

China let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Indonesia went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

China lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 33
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

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PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Japan1072130:323
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4Indonesia103349:2012
5China103077:209
6Bahrain101365:166