Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Indonesia vs Japan

World World

World Championship 2026 Bung Karno Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

29'
Mitoma K.
35' Event
Hubner J.
Own Goal
40' Event
Minamino T.
Assist: Mitoma K.

AI Match Summary

The World Championship 2026 game between Indonesia and Japan finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Japan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Indonesia
20%
Draws
38%
Japan
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Indonesia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Indonesia haven't matched Japan's recent run of results.
  • Indonesia are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this World Championship 2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Japan have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62.2%
Indonesia Clean Sheet 20%
Japan Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Indonesia Japan
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 13 22
Draws 7 6
Losses 12 3
Goals Scored 1.43 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.71 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.43 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.71 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 10, 2025 World Championship
Japan vs Indonesia
6:0
Nov 15, 2024 World Championship
Indonesia vs Japan
0:4
Jan 24, 2024 Asian Cup
Japan vs Indonesia
3:1
Jun 10, 1989 World Championship
Japan vs Indonesia
5:0
May 27, 1989 World Championship
Indonesia vs Japan
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Indonesia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.1
Avg xA / game 0.71

Japan Compare

Top Goalscorer Minamino T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Morita H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Indonesia 42 / 100
Japan 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Indonesia Japan

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.

Indonesia's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Recent resilience: Indonesia stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Japan conceded in 35% of 31 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Indonesia VS Japan
1.43 Goals Scored 1.5
0.71 Goals Conceded 0.75
43% Over 1.5 63%
43% Over 2.5 38%
29% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Iran1072119:823
2Uzbekistan1063114:721
3United Arab Emirates1043315:815
4Qatar1041517:2413
5Kyrgyzstan1022612:188
6North Korea100379:213
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1South Korea1064020:722
2Jordan1044216:816
3Iraq104339:915
4Oman103259:1411
5Palestine1024410:1310
6Kuwait100557:205
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Japan1072130:323
2Australia1054116:719
3Saudi Arabia103437:813
4Indonesia103349:2012
5China103077:209
6Bahrain101365:166