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Indonesia vs Thailand - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Asia Asia

FIFA ASEAN Cup Gelora Bung Karno Stadium, Jakarta
Mon, Oct 5, 2026
3 - 2
01:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Hubner J.
40'
Jaided S.
46'
Sub
Haye T. In: James D.
Out: Haye T.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-2. The second leg ended 3-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Indonesia
30%
Draws
27%
Thailand
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Indonesia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Indonesia haven't matched Thailand's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Indonesia's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Thailand arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Thailand, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Indonesia Clean Sheet 68%
Thailand Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Indonesia Thailand
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 13 19
Draws 6 3
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.76 2.06
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 5, 2026 FIFA ASEAN Cup
Indonesia vs Thailand
3:2
Dec 29, 2022 ASEAN Championship
Indonesia vs Thailand
1:1
Jan 1, 2022 ASEAN Championship
Thailand vs Indonesia
2:2
Dec 29, 2021 ASEAN Championship
Indonesia vs Thailand
0:4
Jun 3, 2021 World Championship
Thailand vs Indonesia
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Indonesia Compare

Top Goalscorer James D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Baggott E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Thailand Compare

Top Goalscorer Sanron I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Chamratsamee P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Indonesia 77 / 100
Thailand 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Indonesia Thailand

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Indonesia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Indonesia has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Indonesia found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Thailand let in goals in 55% of their last 31 matches.

Scoring Trends

Indonesia VS Thailand
2.63 Goals Scored 2
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Indonesia

(Home)
05 Oct
Indonesia
3 : 2
Thailand
01 Oct
Indonesia
9 : 2
Bangladesh
28 Sept
Malaysia
0 : 0
Indonesia
25 Sept
Indonesia
2 : 0
Singapore
07 Aug
Singapore
1 : 1
Indonesia
Page 1 of 6

Thailand

(Away)
05 Oct
Indonesia
3 : 2
Thailand
02 Oct
Thailand
1 : 2
Philippines
29 Sept
Thailand
2 : 0
Vietnam
26 Sept
Pakistan
0 : 4
Thailand
26 Aug
Vietnam
2 : 2
Thailand
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Indonesia 3
Thailand 2
Malaysia 1
Vietnam 0