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Indy Eleven vs Chicago Fire

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Indy Eleven play Chicago Fire in the Club Friendly. It looks like a close match. Recently, Indy Eleven averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.11 conceded. Chicago Fire averaged 2.07 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. In past meetings, Indy Eleven won 0, Chicago Fire won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 1, 2026 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.69 for Indy Eleven and 1.75 for Chicago Fire. This points to a Chicago Fire double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Indy Eleven
24%
Draws
42%
Chicago Fire
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Chicago Fire

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Indy Eleven picked up more points recently compared to Chicago Fire.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.69 vs 1.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 69%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%
Over 2.5 Goals 69%
Over 3.5 Goals 41%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 59%
Indy Eleven Clean Sheet 12%
Chicago Fire Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 69%
Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Indy Eleven Chicago Fire
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 13 16
Draws 6 6
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.36 2.07
Goals Conceded 1.11 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Club Friendly
Indy Eleven vs Chicago Fire
0:0
Feb 25, 2023 Club Friendly
Chicago Fire vs Indy Eleven
3:0
Jun 16, 2016 US Open Cup
Chicago Fire vs Indy Eleven
2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Indy Eleven 33 / 100
Chicago Fire 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Indy Eleven Chicago Fire

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Chicago Fire or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.7%
1.59
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Indy Eleven attacking → ← attacking Chicago Fire

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Indy Eleven scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Chicago Fire let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Indy Eleven went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Chicago Fire lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Friendly match. Both teams will likely test tactics and rotate squads rather than push for a result.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 54
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 2.38
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63