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Stadium Background

Ingolstadt vs RW Essen - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

3. Liga Audi Sportpark, Ingolstadt
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ingolstadt host RW Essen in the 3. Liga. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. RW Essen have shipped 1.62 goals a game lately, while Ingolstadt have conceded 1.59 and scored 1.33. Head-to-head, Ingolstadt have won 0 to RW Essen's 4, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 11, 2026, ending 4:1. Model xG sits at 0.75 vs 1.69, favoring RW Essen. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Ingolstadt
30%
Draws
52%
RW Essen
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: RW Essen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • RW Essen have won more games recently than Ingolstadt.
  • Win probability leans RW Essen's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular 3. Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • RW Essen have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Ingolstadt Clean Sheet 13%
RW Essen Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ingolstadt RW Essen
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 9 17
Draws 3 4
Losses 15 8
Goals Scored 1.33 2.38
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 3. Liga
RW Essen vs Ingolstadt
4:1
Nov 8, 2025 3. Liga
Ingolstadt vs RW Essen
1:2
Feb 22, 2025 3. Liga
RW Essen vs Ingolstadt
2:0
Sep 21, 2024 3. Liga
Ingolstadt vs RW Essen
2:2
Apr 28, 2024 3. Liga
RW Essen vs Ingolstadt
4:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ingolstadt 19 / 100
RW Essen 58 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ingolstadt RW Essen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick RW Essen Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Ingolstadt found the back of the net in 78% of recent matches (27 games).

RW Essen's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Solid form: Ingolstadt remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ingolstadt VS RW Essen
0.75 Goals Scored 1.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ingolstadt

(Home)
02 Oct
Nurnberg
3 : 1
Ingolstadt
19 Sept
FC Viktoria Koln
3 : 0
Ingolstadt
16 Sept
Ingolstadt
1 : 2
Hoffenheim II
12 Sept
Saarbrucken
0 : 1
Ingolstadt
04 Sept
Ingolstadt
0 : 3
Alemannia Aachen
Page 1 of 6

RW Essen

(Away)
09 Oct
Preussen Munster
3 : 3
RW Essen
03 Oct
Arminia Bielefeld
2 : 2
RW Essen
20 Sept
RW Essen
1 : 1
Hansa Rostock
16 Sept
Mannheim
1 : 2
RW Essen
12 Sept
RW Essen
6 : 2
Wurzburger Kickers
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Duisburg 7 6 0 1 19:7 18
2 FC Viktoria Koln 7 5 0 2 19:9 15
3 RW Essen 8 4 3 1 16:12 15
4 Saarbrucken 7 4 1 2 19:12 13
5 Hoffenheim II 7 4 1 2 14:8 13
6 Hansa Rostock 7 3 3 1 15:15 12
7 Preussen Munster 8 3 3 2 15:16 12
8 Alemannia Aachen 7 3 2 2 11:8 11
9 Mannheim 7 3 1 3 11:10 10
10 Dusseldorf 7 3 1 3 6:7 10
11 Verl 7 3 1 3 10:13 10
12 Fortuna Koln 7 2 3 2 8:8 9
13 Sonnenhof Grossaspach 7 2 2 3 6:9 8
14 Ingolstadt 7 2 2 3 7:11 8
15 VfB Stuttgart II 7 2 1 4 12:15 7
16 Wurzburger Kickers 7 2 1 4 11:15 7
17 Meppen 7 2 0 5 8:15 6
18 Regensburg 7 1 2 4 13:17 5
19 Wehen 7 1 2 4 5:13 5
20 TSV Havelse 7 1 1 5 10:15 4
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga (Relegation)