Sport Picks

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Institute vs Derry City

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
McColgan M.
19' Event
Doherty B.
51' Event
Hegarty A.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Institute and Derry City finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Derry City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Institute
6%
Draws
4%
Derry City
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Institute

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Derry City haven't matched Institute's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Institute's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Derry City here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Institute Clean Sheet 17%
Derry City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Institute Derry City
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 8
Draws 4 11
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 2 0.75
Goals Conceded 2 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 28, 2026 Club Friendly
Institute vs Derry City
1:3
Jan 28, 2025 Club Friendly
Institute vs Derry City
0:5
Jan 31, 2024 Club Friendly
Institute vs Derry City
0:3
Feb 6, 2023 Club Friendly
Institute vs Derry City
0:4
Jan 18, 2023 Club Friendly
Institute vs Derry City
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Institute Compare

Top Goalscorer Hegarty A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Derry City Compare

Top Goalscorer Doherty B.
2 Goals
Assists Leader McColgan M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Institute 84 / 100
Derry City 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Institute Derry City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick INS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Institute scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Derry City let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Institute has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Institute VS Derry City
2 Goals Scored 0.75
2 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 50%
100% Over 2.5 25%
67% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Institute

(Home)
18 Jul
Limavady
2 : 1
Institute
11 Jul
Dungannon
3 : 1
Institute
25 Apr
Armagh
1 : 4
Institute
18 Apr
Institute
3 : 1
Ards
11 Apr
Institute
3 : 0
Ballinamallard
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Derry City

(Away)
16 Jul
Derry City
1 : 2
CSKA Sofia
09 Jul
CSKA Sofia
3 : 2
Derry City
03 Jul
Derry City
2 : 4
Waterford
26 Jun
Derry City
2 : 0
Drogheda
22 Jun
Shamrock Rovers
1 : 1
Derry City
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