Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Institute vs Derry City

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
McColgan M.
19' Event
Doherty B.
51' Event
Hegarty A.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Institute and Derry City finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Derry City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Institute
20%
Draws
44%
Derry City
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Derry City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Derry City haven't matched Institute's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Derry City here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Institute Clean Sheet 12%
Derry City Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Institute Derry City
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 15 11
Draws 3 11
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.76 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 28, 2026 Club Friendly
Institute vs Derry City
1:3
Jan 28, 2025 Club Friendly
Institute vs Derry City
0:5
Jan 31, 2024 Club Friendly
Institute vs Derry City
0:3
Feb 6, 2023 Club Friendly
Institute vs Derry City
0:4
Jan 18, 2023 Club Friendly
Institute vs Derry City
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Institute Compare

Top Goalscorer Hegarty A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Derry City Compare

Top Goalscorer Doherty B.
2 Goals
Assists Leader McColgan M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Institute 35 / 100
Derry City 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Institute Derry City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Derry City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Institute scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Derry City let in goals in 71% of their last 31 matches.

Institute has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Institute VS Derry City
1.63 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Institute

(Home)
26 Sept
Annagh
5 : 0
Institute
19 Sept
Institute
2 : 0
Warrenpoint
12 Sept
Armagh
3 : 5
Institute
05 Sept
Rathfriland Rangers
0 : 2
Institute
29 Aug
Institute
1 : 3
Newry City
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Derry City

(Away)
18 Sept
Derry City
1 : 0
Galway United
14 Sept
Waterford
2 : 2
Derry City
11 Sept
Shelbourne
0 : 1
Derry City
06 Sept
Derry City
4 : 2
Dundalk
30 Aug
Derry City
3 : 3
Shamrock Rovers
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