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Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls

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MLS Nu Stadium
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AI Match Summary

Inter Miami play New York Red Bulls in the MLS. It looks like a close match. Recently, Inter Miami averaged 2.61 goals scored and 1.58 conceded. New York Red Bulls averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.97 conceded. In past meetings, Inter Miami won 3, New York Red Bulls won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 11, 2026 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.63 for Inter Miami and 1.81 for New York Red Bulls. This points to a Inter Miami double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Inter Miami
20%
Draws
26%
New York Red Bulls
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Inter Miami

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence
  • Inter Miami picked up more points recently compared to New York Red Bulls.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.63 vs 1.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 76%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 91%
Over 2.5 Goals 76%
Over 3.5 Goals 46%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Inter Miami Clean Sheet 11%
New York Red Bulls Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 82%
Second Half Goal 86%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Inter Miami New York Red Bulls
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 20 10
Draws 8 5
Losses 5 15
Goals Scored 2.61 1.6
Goals Conceded 1.58 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 MLS
Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls
2:2
Jul 19, 2025 MLS
New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami
1:5
May 3, 2025 MLS
Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls
4:1
May 4, 2024 MLS
Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls
6:2
Mar 23, 2024 MLS
New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Inter Miami Compare

Top Goalscorer Silvetti M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Berterame G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38

New York Red Bulls Compare

Top Goalscorer Ruvalcaba J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mehmeti A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Inter Miami 51 / 100
New York Red Bulls 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Inter Miami New York Red Bulls

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Inter Miami Win (1)
Secondary Pick Inter Miami & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.2%
2.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.7%
1.43
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Inter Miami attacking → ← attacking New York Red Bulls

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Inter Miami scored in 88% of their last 33 games.

New York Red Bulls let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 5.40 goals.

Inter Miami went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

New York Red Bulls lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

68 Points in last 5 35
2.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.88
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Vancouver Whitecaps14102234:1232
2San Jose Earthquakes15102334:1532
3Real Salt Lake1482426:1926
4FC Dallas1574430:2225
5Los Angeles FC1573524:1724
6Seattle Sounders1373317:1124
7Houston Dynamo1471619:2322
8Minnesota United1564518:2222
9Los Angeles Galaxy1555522:2220
10San Diego FC1545630:2717
11Colorado Rapids1551925:2416
12St. Louis City1444616:2016
13Portland Timbers1442822:2814
14Austin FC1535719:3114
15Sporting Kansas City1432914:3611
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Nashville SC14103131:1133
2Inter Miami1594239:2831
3Chicago Fire1482427:1626
4New England Revolution1481522:1825
5New York Red Bulls1564525:3222
6Charlotte FC1563624:2321
7FC Cincinnati1555536:3720
8New York City1554625:2119
9DC United1546521:2518
10Columbus Crew1544721:2316
11CF Montreal1442822:3114
12Orlando City1542923:4414
13Toronto FC1435622:2914
14Atlanta United1432914:2311
15Philadelphia Union15141018:307