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Inter vs Napoli - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie A Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro), Milan
Our Tip

Match Events

35'
Vergara A.
46'
Sub
Esposito F. In: Thuram M.
Out: Esposito F.
46'
Sub
Sucic P. In: Jones C.
Out: Sucic P.

AI Match Summary

The Serie A game between Inter and Napoli finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Inter.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Inter
15%
Draws
31%
Napoli
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Inter

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Napoli haven't matched Inter's recent run of results.
  • Inter are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Inter Clean Sheet 15%
Napoli Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Inter Napoli
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 21 14
Draws 5 5
Losses 3 10
Goals Scored 2.31 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Serie A
Inter vs Napoli
3:2
Jan 11, 2026 Serie A
Inter vs Napoli
2:2
Oct 25, 2025 Serie A
Napoli vs Inter
3:1
Mar 1, 2025 Serie A
Napoli vs Inter
1:1
Nov 10, 2024 Serie A
Inter vs Napoli
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Inter Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez L.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Thuram M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Napoli Compare

Top Goalscorer Politano M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hojlund R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Inter 75 / 100
Napoli 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Inter Napoli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Inter Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Inter scored in 100% of their last 29 games.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Napoli has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Inter has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Inter VS Napoli
2.13 Goals Scored 2
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Inter

(Home)
03 Nov
Feyenoord
0 : 3
Inter
31 Oct
AC Milan
3 : 1
Inter
28 Oct
Venezia
0 : 2
Inter
25 Oct
Inter
2 : 1
Fiorentina
21 Oct
Inter
1 : 0
Shakhtar
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Napoli

(Away)
04 Nov
FC Porto
4 : 1
Napoli
01 Nov
Juventus
2 : 0
Napoli
28 Oct
Monza
1 : 4
Napoli
24 Oct
Napoli
3 : 3
AS Roma
20 Oct
Napoli
4 : 3
Bodo/Glimt
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lazio 10 9 1 0 24:8 28
2 Inter 10 8 1 1 26:13 25
3 AS Roma 10 7 3 0 28:10 24
4 Como 10 7 2 1 18:8 23
5 AC Milan 10 6 3 1 21:12 21
6 Frosinone 10 6 2 2 24:14 20
7 Juventus 10 5 2 3 13:10 17
8 Napoli 10 4 2 4 17:13 14
9 Bologna 10 4 2 4 14:13 14
10 Torino 10 4 1 5 14:16 13
11 Genoa 10 4 1 5 10:14 13
12 Cagliari 10 4 1 5 9:15 13
13 Atalanta 10 3 2 5 16:20 11
14 Lecce 10 3 0 7 11:21 9
15 Parma 10 2 2 6 8:15 8
16 Fiorentina 10 2 2 6 15:23 8
17 Sassuolo 10 2 2 6 16:26 8
18 Monza 10 2 1 7 17:24 7
19 Udinese 10 1 2 7 11:23 5
20 Venezia 10 1 0 9 6:20 3
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)