Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Iraq U23 vs Australia U23

Asia Asia

AFC Asian Cup U23 Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Riyadh
Iraq U23 Logo

Iraq U23

1 - 2
FT
Australia U23 Logo

Australia U23

Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Karrar A. In: Al Mohammed A.
Out: Karrar A.
63' Event
Faisal A.
(Penalty)
64'
Sub
Valadon J. In: Agosti L.
Out: Valadon J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. This leg finished 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Iraq U23
30%
Draws
54%
Australia U23
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Australia U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Australia U23 lately — more wins on the board than Iraq U23.
  • Win probability leans Australia U23's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Australia U23 arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Australia U23, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Iraq U23 Clean Sheet 21%
Australia U23 Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Iraq U23 Australia U23
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 14 16
Draws 4 7
Losses 11 5
Goals Scored 1.38 2.32
Goals Conceded 1.24 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 14, 2026 AFC Asian Cup U23
Iraq U23 vs Australia U23
1:2
Mar 20, 2024 WAFF Championship U23
Australia U23 vs Iraq U23
2:1
Jun 4, 2022 AFC Asian Cup U23
Iraq U23 vs Australia U23
1:1
Jan 8, 2020 AFC Asian Cup U23
Iraq U23 vs Australia U23
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Iraq U23 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Australia U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Dukuly Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Macallister M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Iraq U23 10 / 100
Australia U23 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Iraq U23 Australia U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Australia U23 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Iraq U23's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Australia U23 conceded in 57% of 28 recent games.

Solid form: Iraq U23 remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Iraq U23 VS Australia U23
1 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Iraq U23

(Home)
09 Jun
Russia U21
1 : 0
Iraq U23
05 Jun
Russia U21
5 : 1
Iraq U23
14 Jan
Iraq U23
1 : 2
Australia U23
11 Jan
Thailand U23
1 : 1
Iraq U23
08 Jan
Iraq U23
0 : 0
China U23
Page 1 of 6

Australia U23

(Away)
17 Jan
Australia U23
1 : 2
South Korea U23
14 Jan
Iraq U23
1 : 2
Australia U23
11 Jan
China U23
1 : 0
Australia U23
08 Jan
Australia U23
2 : 1
Thailand U23
09 Sept
Australia U23
0 : 0
China U23
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vietnam U23 3 3 0 0 5:1 9
2 Jordan U23 3 2 0 1 4:4 6
3 Saudi Arabia U23 3 1 0 2 3:4 3
4 Kyrgyzstan U23 3 0 0 3 1:4 0
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Japan U23 3 3 0 0 10:0 9
2 United Arab Emirates U23 3 1 1 1 3:4 4
3 Syria U23 3 1 1 1 2:6 4
4 Qatar U23 3 0 0 3 0:5 0
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uzbekistan U23 3 2 1 0 5:2 7
2 South Korea U23 3 1 1 1 4:4 4
3 Lebanon U23 3 1 0 2 5:7 3
4 Iran U23 3 0 2 1 0:1 2
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Australia U23 3 2 0 1 4:3 6
2 China U23 3 1 2 0 1:0 5
3 Iraq U23 3 0 2 1 2:3 2
4 Thailand U23 3 0 2 1 2:3 2
Promotion - AFC Asian Cup U23 (Play Offs)