Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Iraq U23 vs Qatar U23

Asia Asia

Arabian Gulf Cup U23
Sun, Dec 14, 2025
2 - 1
12:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Faisal A.
(Penalty)
83' Event
Al Abdulla R.
88'
Qasim A.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Iraq U23
35%
Draws
39%
Qatar U23
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Qatar U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Iraq U23 lately — more wins on the board than Qatar U23.
  • 39% — that's where the model lands on Qatar U23 taking it.
  • Iraq U23 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Iraq U23, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Iraq U23 have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 87%
Over 1.5 Goals 77.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 15%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Iraq U23 Clean Sheet 18%
Qatar U23 Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Iraq U23 Qatar U23
Matches Played 37 31
Wins 19 14
Draws 5 7
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.49 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.14 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.35
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 14, 2025 Arabian Gulf Cup U23
Iraq U23 vs Qatar U23
2:1
Jan 29, 2016 AFC Asian Cup U23
Qatar U23 vs Iraq U23
1:2
Sep 16, 2011 Friendly International
Qatar U23 vs Iraq U23
1:2
Dec 15, 2006 Asian Games
Qatar U23 vs Iraq U23
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Iraq U23 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Qatar U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Al Abdulla R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.23
Avg xA / game 0.75

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Iraq U23 23 / 100
Qatar U23 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Iraq U23 Qatar U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Qatar U23 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Iraq U23's goal record stands at 78% scoring rate across 37 recent games.

Defensive concern: Qatar U23 conceded in 68% of 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Iraq U23 remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Iraq U23 VS Qatar U23
0.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.83 Goals Conceded 1.63
67% Over 1.5 88%
33% Over 2.5 50%
17% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Iraq U23

(Home)
09 Jun
Russia U21
1 : 0
Iraq U23
05 Jun
Russia U21
5 : 1
Iraq U23
14 Jan
Iraq U23
1 : 2
Australia U23
11 Jan
Thailand U23
1 : 1
Iraq U23
08 Jan
Iraq U23
0 : 0
China U23
Page 1 of 8

Qatar U23

(Away)
06 Sept
Al-Waab
1 : 1
Qatar U23
31 Aug
Al Bidda
2 : 0
Qatar U23
25 Aug
Umm-Salal
1 : 1
Qatar U23
09 Jun
Ireland U21
0 : 0
Qatar U23
03 Jun
Croatia U21
2 : 0
Qatar U23
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Saudi Arabia U23 2
United Arab Emirates U23 0
Iraq U23 2
Qatar U23 1
Final
Saudi Arabia U23 2
Iraq U23 0