Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Iraq vs Saudi Arabia

Asia Asia

Arabian Gulf Cup 2024 Jaber Al Mubarak Stadium, Kuwait
Our Tip

Match Events

21'
Saadoon M.
36'
Sub
Al Malki A. In: Hawsawi A.
Out: Al Malki A.
39'
Boushal N.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-3, with Saudi Arabia advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Iraq
35%
Draws
56%
Saudi Arabia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Saudi Arabia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Iraq carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Saudi Arabia's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Iraq have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Saudi Arabia, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Iraq Clean Sheet 18%
Saudi Arabia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Iraq Saudi Arabia
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 12
Draws 6 7
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 0.9 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 14, 2025 World Championship
Saudi Arabia vs Iraq
0:0
Dec 28, 2024 Arabian Gulf Cup
Iraq vs Saudi Arabia
1:3
Jan 9, 2023 Arabian Gulf Cup
Saudi Arabia vs Iraq
0:2
Oct 15, 2018 Friendly International
Saudi Arabia vs Iraq
1:1
Feb 28, 2018 Friendly International
Iraq vs Saudi Arabia
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Iraq Compare

Top Goalscorer Ali M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Saudi Arabia Compare

Top Goalscorer Al Hamdan A.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Iraq 10 / 100
Saudi Arabia 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Iraq Saudi Arabia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Saudi Arabia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Iraq's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Saudi Arabia has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Iraq remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Iraq VS Saudi Arabia
0.63 Goals Scored 0.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Iraq

(Home)
26 Jun
Senegal
5 : 0
Iraq
22 Jun
France
3 : 0
Iraq
16 Jun
Iraq
1 : 4
Norway
10 Jun
Iraq
0 : 2
Venezuela
04 Jun
Spain
1 : 1
Iraq
Page 1 of 6

Saudi Arabia

(Away)
27 Jun
Cape Verde
0 : 0
Saudi Arabia
21 Jun
Spain
4 : 0
Saudi Arabia
15 Jun
Saudi Arabia
1 : 1
Uruguay
09 Jun
Saudi Arabia
0 : 0
Senegal
05 Jun
Puerto Rico
0 : 3
Saudi Arabia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Oman 3 1 2 0 4:3 5
2 Kuwait 3 1 2 0 4:3 5
3 United Arab Emirates 3 0 2 1 3:4 2
4 Qatar 3 0 2 1 3:4 2
Promotion - Arabian Gulf Cup 2024 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bahrain 3 2 0 1 6:4 6
2 Saudi Arabia 3 2 0 1 8:6 6
3 Iraq 3 1 0 2 2:5 3
4 Yemen 3 1 0 2 4:5 3
Promotion - Arabian Gulf Cup 2024 (Play Offs)