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Iron vs SC Poltava

Ukraine Ukraine

Ukrainian Cup
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Iron enters this Ukrainian Cup fixture as the clear favorite, carrying a strong win probability of 60%. Iron averages 1.0 goals scored and 5.0 conceded in recent matches. SC Poltava shows a form average of 1.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 0 wins for Iron, 1 wins for SC Poltava, and 0 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 23.08.25 ended in a 1:5 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.60 for Iron and 0.99 for SC Poltava, suggesting the primary value lies in the Iron double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Iron
25%
Draws
15%
SC Poltava
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Iron

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Iron picked up more points recently compared to SC Poltava.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.60 vs 0.99 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 66%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 91%
Over 2.5 Goals 66%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%
Iron Clean Sheet 23%
SC Poltava Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 82%
Second Half Goal 86%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Iron SC Poltava
Matches Played 1 30
Wins 0 3
Draws 0 6
Losses 1 21
Goals Scored 1 0.97
Goals Conceded 5 2.5

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

23.08.25 Ukrainian Cup
Iron vs SC Poltava
1:5

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Iron

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

SC Poltava

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Iron Compare

Top Goalscorer N/A
0 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

SC Poltava Compare

Top Goalscorer Onishchenko A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Marusych M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Iron 59 / 100
SC Poltava 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Iron SC Poltava

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Iron Win (1)
Secondary Pick Iron & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.2%
1.92
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.2%
1.67
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Iron is expected to start with high intensity, putting pressure on the visitors early.

Iron 66%
SC Poltava 12%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

SC Poltava will try to absorb the pressure and slow down the tempo of Iron's attacks.

Iron 57%
SC Poltava 16%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Expect Iron to create chances through sustained possession before the break.

Iron 60%
SC Poltava 15%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments at half-time will see Iron vary their attacking width.

Iron 63%
SC Poltava 14%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Fatigue may set in for SC Poltava, allowing Iron's midfield to exploit vertical gaps.

Iron 54%
SC Poltava 17%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Expect a final offensive push from Iron, while SC Poltava takes risks to salvage a result.

Iron 69%
SC Poltava 17%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Iron attacking → ← attacking SC Poltava

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Iron have found the net in 100% of their last 1 matches.

SC Poltava have conceded at least one goal in 97% of their last 30 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 6.00 goals per match.

Iron remained undefeated in 0 of their last 5 overall matchups.

SC Poltava suffered defeat in 4 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Knockout cup fixture where progress is the sole objective; expect high motivation and potential extra time drama.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

0 Points in last 5 15
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00