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Iskra Danilovgrad vs Arsenal Tivat

Montenegro Montenegro

Montenegrin Cup Braca Velasevic Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Iskra Danilovgrad play Arsenal Tivat in the Montenegrin Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, Iskra Danilovgrad averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. Arsenal Tivat averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. In past meetings, Iskra Danilovgrad won 3, Arsenal Tivat won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Oct 22, 2025 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.69 for Iskra Danilovgrad and 1.25 for Arsenal Tivat. This points to a Iskra Danilovgrad double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Iskra Danilovgrad
15%
Draws
33%
Arsenal Tivat
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Iskra Danilovgrad

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence
  • Iskra Danilovgrad picked up more points recently compared to Arsenal Tivat.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.69 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Over 3.5 Goals 33%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
Iskra Danilovgrad Clean Sheet 19%
Arsenal Tivat Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Iskra Danilovgrad Arsenal Tivat
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 10
Draws 8 5
Losses 8 15
Goals Scored 1.5 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 22, 2025 Montenegrin Cup
Iskra Danilovgrad vs Arsenal Tivat
3:0
May 3, 2023 Montenegrin Cup
Arsenal Tivat vs Iskra Danilovgrad
2:3
Apr 29, 2023 Prva Crnogorska Liga
Arsenal Tivat vs Iskra Danilovgrad
2:3
Apr 19, 2023 Montenegrin Cup
Iskra Danilovgrad vs Arsenal Tivat
1:3
Mar 4, 2023 Prva Crnogorska Liga
Iskra Danilovgrad vs Arsenal Tivat
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Iskra Danilovgrad Compare

Top Goalscorer Pavicevic P.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Scepanovic M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Arsenal Tivat Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Iskra Danilovgrad 51 / 100
Arsenal Tivat 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Iskra Danilovgrad Arsenal Tivat

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Iskra Danilovgrad or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +18%
2.27
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.2%
2.04
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Iskra Danilovgrad attacking → ← attacking Arsenal Tivat

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Iskra Danilovgrad scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Arsenal Tivat let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Iskra Danilovgrad went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Arsenal Tivat lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

50 Points in last 5 35
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75