Sport Picks

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Isla de La Juventud vs Matanzas

Cuba Cuba

Liga Nacional 2024
Sat, Feb 3, 2024
VS
08:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Isla de La Juventud play Matanzas in the Liga Nacional 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Isla de La Juventud averaged 0.87 goals scored and 1.65 conceded. Matanzas averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.54 conceded. In past meetings, Isla de La Juventud won 1, Matanzas won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Feb 3, 2024 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.56 for Isla de La Juventud and 0.75 for Matanzas. This points to a Isla de La Juventud double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Isla de La Juventud
27%
Draws
36%
Matanzas
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Isla de La Juventud

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Isla de La Juventud picked up more points recently compared to Matanzas.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.56 vs 0.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33%
Isla de La Juventud Clean Sheet 27%
Matanzas Clean Sheet 22%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Isla de La Juventud Matanzas
Matches Played 23 28
Wins 6 7
Draws 3 6
Losses 14 15
Goals Scored 0.87 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.65 1.54
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 3, 2024 Liga Nacional
Isla de La Juventud vs Matanzas
0:0
Mar 18, 2023 Liga Nacional
Isla de La Juventud vs Matanzas
4:1
Apr 2, 2022 Liga Nacional
Matanzas vs Isla de La Juventud
0:0
Feb 12, 2022 Liga Nacional
Isla de La Juventud vs Matanzas
0:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Isla de La Juventud 39 / 100
Matanzas 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Isla de La Juventud Matanzas

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Isla de La Juventud or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.7%
2.63
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Isla de La Juventud attacking → ← attacking Matanzas

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Isla de La Juventud scored in 52% of their last 23 games.

Matanzas let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Isla de La Juventud went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Matanzas lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

21 Points in last 5 27
0.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.38
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FC Cienfuegos11002:03
2Pinar del Rio10101:11
3Artemisa10101:11
4FC Villa Clara10100:01
5Mayabeque Guines10100:01
6Matanzas00000:00
7Isla de La Juventud00000:00
8FC La Habana10010:20
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FC Guantanamo11001:03
2FC Ciego de Avila10100:01
3FC Holguin10100:01
4FC Santiago de Cuba00000:00
5FC Sancti Spiritus00000:00
6FC Camaguey00000:00
7CF Granma00000:00
8Las Tunas10010:10