Sport Picks
Istaravshan vs Istiqlol Dushanbe Prediction & H2H Stats
Tajikistan
Vysshaya Liga 2025 
Match Events
9'
9'
Chobanov M.
18'
18'
Komolafe P.
37'
37'
Gafurov M.
AI Match Summary
The Vysshaya Liga 2025 game between Istaravshan and Istiqlol Dushanbe finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Istiqlol Dushanbe.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
9%
15%
76%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Istiqlol Dushanbe
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
76%
/ Very High Confidence
- Istiqlol Dushanbe carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Istiqlol Dushanbe a 76% chance of winning this.
- Regular Vysshaya Liga 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Istiqlol Dushanbe here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Istaravshan Clean Sheet 11%
Istiqlol Dushanbe Clean Sheet 18%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Istaravshan | Istiqlol Dushanbe |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 34 |
| Wins | 3 | 22 |
| Draws | 10 | 5 |
| Losses | 17 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 0.9 | 2.29 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.97 | 0.82 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.81 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 14, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
Istaravshan vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
1:2
Dec 12, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Istaravshan vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
1:4
Aug 14, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Istaravshan
6:0
Aug 14, 2024 Vysshaya Liga
Istaravshan vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
0:2
Apr 7, 2024 Vysshaya Liga
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Istaravshan
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Istaravshan Compare
Top Goalscorer Fozilov S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41
Istiqlol Dushanbe Compare
Top Goalscorer Chobanov M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Komolafe P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Istaravshan 10 / 100
Istiqlol Dushanbe 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Istaravshan Istiqlol Dushanbe
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Istiqlol Dushanbe Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.
Istaravshan's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Istiqlol Dushanbe let in goals in 59% of their last 34 matches.
Solid form: Istaravshan remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Istaravshan VS Istiqlol Dushanbe
1 Goals Scored 1.25
2.38 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Istaravshan
(Home) 16 Sept
Eskhata
3 : 1 Istaravshan
11 Sept
Istaravshan
1 : 4 Barkchi Hisor
29 Aug
Vakhsh
1 : 1 Istaravshan
16 Aug
Istaravshan
0 : 2 Khujand
02 Aug
Khosilot Parkhar
5 : 2 Istaravshan
Page 1 of 6
11 Sept
Istaravshan
1 : 4 Barkchi Hisor
16 Aug
Istaravshan
0 : 2 Khujand
26 Jun
Istaravshan
1 : 1 Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov
17 Jun
Istaravshan
1 : 1 Sardor Tursunzoda
14 Jun
Istaravshan
1 : 2 Istiqlol Dushanbe
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Istiqlol Dushanbe
(Away) 15 Sept
Khujand
1 : 0 Istiqlol Dushanbe
05 Sept
Istiqlol Dushanbe
1 : 0 Khosilot Parkhar
30 Aug
Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov
0 : 4 Istiqlol Dushanbe
15 Aug
Ravshan Kulob
0 : 1 Istiqlol Dushanbe
02 Aug
Regar-TadAZ
1 : 0 Istiqlol Dushanbe
Page 1 of 7
15 Sept
Khujand
1 : 0 Istiqlol Dushanbe
30 Aug
Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov
0 : 4 Istiqlol Dushanbe
15 Aug
Ravshan Kulob
0 : 1 Istiqlol Dushanbe
02 Aug
Regar-TadAZ
1 : 0 Istiqlol Dushanbe
28 Jun
Sardor Tursunzoda
0 : 1 Istiqlol Dushanbe
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Istiqlol Dushanbe | 22 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 58:18 | 50 |
| 2 | Vakhsh | 22 | 12 | 9 | 1 | 33:18 | 45 |
| 3 | CSKA Pomir Dushanbe | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 38:23 | 37 |
| 4 | Ravshan Kulob | 22 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 26:20 | 35 |
| 5 | Khujand | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 24:25 | 31 |
| 6 | Regar-TadAZ | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 25:24 | 30 |
| 7 | Eskhata | 22 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 31:30 | 30 |
| 8 | Barkchi Hisor | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 22:20 | 27 |
| 9 | Khosilot Parkhar | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 27:38 | 24 |
| 10 | Istaravshan | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 23:42 | 19 |
| 11 | Hulbuk | 22 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 15:39 | 13 |
| 12 | Panjsher | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 16:41 | 12 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Qualification)
Relegation - Vysshaya Liga 2025 (Relegation)
