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Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Hulbuk Prediction & H2H Stats

Tajikistan Tajikistan

Vysshaya Liga 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

52' Event
Nasrullozoda R.
90' Event
Gafurov M.

AI Match Summary

The Vysshaya Liga 2025 game between Istiqlol Dushanbe and Hulbuk finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Istiqlol Dushanbe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Istiqlol Dushanbe
20%
Draws
15%
Hulbuk
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Istiqlol Dushanbe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Istiqlol Dushanbe come out ahead of Hulbuk on wins alone.
  • 65% — that's where the model lands on Istiqlol Dushanbe taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Istiqlol Dushanbe Clean Sheet 20%
Hulbuk Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Istiqlol Dushanbe Hulbuk
Matches Played 30 24
Wins 20 2
Draws 5 8
Losses 5 14
Goals Scored 2.13 0.71
Goals Conceded 0.77 1.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 4, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Hulbuk vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
1:5
May 3, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Hulbuk
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Istiqlol Dushanbe Compare

Top Goalscorer Nasrullozoda R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gafurov M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Hulbuk Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Istiqlol Dushanbe 85 / 100
Hulbuk 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Istiqlol Dushanbe Hulbuk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Istiqlol Dushanbe Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Istiqlol Dushanbe scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Hulbuk let in goals in 79% of their last 24 matches.

Solid form: Istiqlol Dushanbe remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Istiqlol Dushanbe VS -
1.38 Goals Scored 0
0.38 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Istiqlol Dushanbe

(Home)
15 Sept
Khujand
1 : 0
Istiqlol Dushanbe
05 Sept
Istiqlol Dushanbe
1 : 0
Khosilot Parkhar
30 Aug
Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov
0 : 4
Istiqlol Dushanbe
15 Aug
Ravshan Kulob
0 : 1
Istiqlol Dushanbe
02 Aug
Regar-TadAZ
1 : 0
Istiqlol Dushanbe
Page 1 of 6

Hulbuk

(Away)
10 Dec
Sardor Tursunzoda
2 : 0
Hulbuk
07 Dec
Hulbuk
2 : 2
Sardor Tursunzoda
04 Dec
Hulbuk
1 : 5
Istiqlol Dushanbe
10 Nov
Hulbuk
1 : 1
Ravshan Kulob
02 Nov
Khosilot Parkhar
1 : 0
Hulbuk
Page 1 of 5

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Istiqlol Dushanbe 22 15 5 2 58:18 50
2 Vakhsh 22 12 9 1 33:18 45
3 CSKA Pomir Dushanbe 22 10 7 5 38:23 37
4 Ravshan Kulob 22 8 11 3 26:20 35
5 Khujand 22 9 4 9 24:25 31
6 Regar-TadAZ 22 8 6 8 25:24 30
7 Eskhata 22 7 9 6 31:30 30
8 Barkchi Hisor 22 6 9 7 22:20 27
9 Khosilot Parkhar 22 6 6 10 27:38 24
10 Istaravshan 22 4 7 11 23:42 19
11 Hulbuk 22 2 7 13 15:39 13
12 Panjsher 22 2 6 14 16:41 12
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Qualification)
Relegation - Vysshaya Liga 2025 (Relegation)