Sport Picks
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Khosilot Parkhar - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Tajikistan
Vysshaya Liga 
AI Match Summary
Istiqlol Dushanbe in this Vysshaya Liga matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Istiqlol Dushanbe.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
15%
45%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Khosilot Parkhar
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Istiqlol Dushanbe have won more games recently than Khosilot Parkhar.
- Istiqlol Dushanbe are the model's pick here, at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Istiqlol Dushanbe Clean Sheet 13%
Khosilot Parkhar Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Istiqlol Dushanbe | Khosilot Parkhar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 19 | 13 |
| Draws | 5 | 7 |
| Losses | 5 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 2.14 | 1.61 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.79 | 1.36 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 5, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Khosilot Parkhar
1:0
Apr 19, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
Khosilot Parkhar vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
1:1
Nov 30, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Khosilot Parkhar vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
0:9
Mar 29, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Khosilot Parkhar
1:1
Nov 14, 2024 Vysshaya Liga
Khosilot Parkhar vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
3:3
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Istiqlol Dushanbe 39 / 100
Khosilot Parkhar 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Istiqlol Dushanbe Khosilot Parkhar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Istiqlol Dushanbe Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.
Istiqlol Dushanbe scored in 79% of their last 29 games.
Khosilot Parkhar has conceded goals in 68% of their last 28 outings.
Istiqlol Dushanbe has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Istiqlol Dushanbe VS Khosilot Parkhar
1.5 Goals Scored 2.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Istiqlol Dushanbe
(Home) 15 Sept
Khujand
1 : 0 Istiqlol Dushanbe
05 Sept
Istiqlol Dushanbe
1 : 0 Khosilot Parkhar
30 Aug
Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov
0 : 4 Istiqlol Dushanbe
15 Aug
Ravshan Kulob
0 : 1 Istiqlol Dushanbe
02 Aug
Regar-TadAZ
1 : 0 Istiqlol Dushanbe
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
Istiqlol Dushanbe
1 : 0 Khosilot Parkhar
27 May
Istiqlol Dushanbe
3 : 1 CSKA Pomir Dushanbe
23 May
Istiqlol Dushanbe
1 : 2 Regar-TadAZ
09 May
Istiqlol Dushanbe
2 : 0 Barkchi Hisor
24 Apr
Istiqlol Dushanbe
2 : 1 Khujand
Page 1 of 3
Khosilot Parkhar
(Away) 15 Sept
Khosilot Parkhar
2 : 0 Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov
05 Sept
Istiqlol Dushanbe
1 : 0 Khosilot Parkhar
30 Aug
Khosilot Parkhar
1 : 0 Regar-TadAZ
14 Aug
Sardor Tursunzoda
3 : 3 Khosilot Parkhar
02 Aug
Khosilot Parkhar
5 : 2 Istaravshan
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
Istiqlol Dushanbe
1 : 0 Khosilot Parkhar
14 Aug
Sardor Tursunzoda
3 : 3 Khosilot Parkhar
26 Jun
CSKA Pomir Dushanbe
2 : 3 Khosilot Parkhar
13 Jun
Eskhata
1 : 6 Khosilot Parkhar
16 May
Vakhsh
2 : 2 Khosilot Parkhar
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Istiqlol Dushanbe | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 23:6 | 37 |
| 2 | Regar-TadAZ | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 23:9 | 37 |
| 3 | Khosilot Parkhar | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 34:17 | 34 |
| 4 | Barkchi Hisor | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 24:23 | 24 |
| 5 | CSKA Pomir Dushanbe | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 18:20 | 24 |
| 6 | Khujand | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 15:11 | 24 |
| 7 | Ravshan Kulob | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 23:19 | 22 |
| 8 | Vakhsh | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 24:24 | 20 |
| 9 | Eskhata | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 22:32 | 19 |
| 10 | Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 15:32 | 15 |
| 11 | Sardor Tursunzoda | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 23:31 | 11 |
| 12 | Istaravshan | 17 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 15:35 | 6 |
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Qualification)
Relegation - Vysshaya Liga (Relegation)
