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Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Regar-TadAZ Prediction & H2H Stats

Tajikistan Tajikistan

Super Cup Hisor Central Stadium, Hisor
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Khaitov A.
30' Event
Nozimov A.
50' Event
Rakhimov M.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. This leg finished 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Istiqlol Dushanbe
15%
Draws
45%
Regar-TadAZ
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Regar-TadAZ

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Regar-TadAZ haven't matched Istiqlol Dushanbe's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Istiqlol Dushanbe have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Istiqlol Dushanbe, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Istiqlol Dushanbe Clean Sheet 20%
Regar-TadAZ Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Istiqlol Dushanbe Regar-TadAZ
Matches Played 34 34
Wins 22 18
Draws 5 9
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 2.29 1.29
Goals Conceded 0.82 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
Regar-TadAZ vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
1:0
May 23, 2026 Super Cup
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Regar-TadAZ
1:2
Mar 14, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Regar-TadAZ
1:0
Jun 22, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Regar-TadAZ vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
1:2
May 25, 2025 Super Cup
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Regar-TadAZ
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Istiqlol Dushanbe Compare

Top Goalscorer Rakhimov M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Regar-TadAZ Compare

Top Goalscorer Khaitov A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nozimov A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Istiqlol Dushanbe 32 / 100
Regar-TadAZ 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Istiqlol Dushanbe Regar-TadAZ

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Istiqlol Dushanbe found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (34 games).

Regar-TadAZ has conceded goals in 65% of their last 34 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Istiqlol Dushanbe remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Istiqlol Dushanbe VS Regar-TadAZ
1.25 Goals Scored 2
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.38
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Istiqlol Dushanbe

(Home)
15 Sept
Khujand
1 : 0
Istiqlol Dushanbe
05 Sept
Istiqlol Dushanbe
1 : 0
Khosilot Parkhar
30 Aug
Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov
0 : 4
Istiqlol Dushanbe
15 Aug
Ravshan Kulob
0 : 1
Istiqlol Dushanbe
02 Aug
Regar-TadAZ
1 : 0
Istiqlol Dushanbe
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Regar-TadAZ

(Away)
17 Sept
Vakhsh
0 : 1
Regar-TadAZ
08 Sept
Regar-TadAZ
0 : 0
Khujand
30 Aug
Khosilot Parkhar
1 : 0
Regar-TadAZ
18 Aug
Regar-TadAZ
3 : 0
Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov
12 Aug
Maziya
0 : 3
Regar-TadAZ
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Istiqlol Dushanbe 1
Regar-TadAZ 2