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Stadium Background

Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Croatia Croatia

HNL Stadion Aldo Drosina, Pula
Our Tip

Match Events

45'
Doumbia D.
61'
Sub
Skafar Zuzic N. In: Ukich S.
Out: Skafar Zuzic N.
62'
Sub
Doumbia D. In: Albarracin G.
Out: Doumbia D.

AI Match Summary

The HNL game between Istra 1961 and HNK Gorica finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward HNK Gorica.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Istra 1961
35%
Draws
24%
HNK Gorica
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Istra 1961

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Istra 1961 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Istra 1961 a 41% chance of winning this.
  • Regular HNL form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors HNK Gorica here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Istra 1961 Clean Sheet 20%
HNK Gorica Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Istra 1961 HNK Gorica
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 9
Draws 8 5
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 1.69 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 HNL
Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica
0:1
Apr 27, 2026 HNL
HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961
1:0
Feb 21, 2026 HNL
Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica
0:2
Nov 23, 2025 HNL
HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961
1:0
Aug 29, 2025 HNL
Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Istra 1961 Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

HNK Gorica Compare

Top Goalscorer Pranjic J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Istra 1961 58 / 100
HNK Gorica 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Istra 1961 HNK Gorica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Istra 1961 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Istra 1961's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

HNK Gorica's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

Istra 1961 went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

These sides typically produce 1.20 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Istra 1961 VS HNK Gorica
2.13 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Istra 1961

(Home)
10 Oct
Osijek
1 : 3
Istra 1961
19 Sept
Istra 1961
0 : 1
HNK Gorica
13 Sept
Istra 1961
3 : 2
Rudes
08 Sept
Zagorec Krapina
0 : 5
Istra 1961
04 Sept
Varazdin
0 : 0
Istra 1961
Page 1 of 6

HNK Gorica

(Away)
09 Oct
HNK Gorica
1 : 2
Rudes
02 Oct
HNK Gorica
3 : 3
Bravo
28 Sept
Maribor
1 : 1
HNK Gorica
19 Sept
Istra 1961
0 : 1
HNK Gorica
14 Sept
HNK Gorica
2 : 2
Varazdin
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Din. Zagreb 7 5 1 1 17:9 16
2 Hajduk Split 8 5 1 2 16:8 16
3 Osijek 8 5 1 2 17:11 16
4 Varazdin 8 4 3 1 13:7 15
5 Rijeka 7 4 2 1 13:7 14
6 Istra 1961 8 2 3 3 14:13 9
7 Lok. Zagreb 8 2 1 5 11:16 7
8 Slaven Belupo 8 2 1 5 7:16 7
9 Rudes 9 2 1 6 12:25 7
10 HNK Gorica 9 1 2 6 6:14 5
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva NL 2027/2028 (Main)