Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Istra 1961 vs Lok. Zagreb

Croatia Croatia

HNL Stadion Aldo Drosina, Pula
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Triantafyllou A.
30' Event
Frederiksen E.
Assist: Skafar Zuzic N.
32'
Skafar Zuzic N.

AI Match Summary

Lok. Zagreb in this HNL matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lok. Zagreb.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Istra 1961
30%
Draws
23%
Lok. Zagreb
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Istra 1961

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Istra 1961 average 1.53 goals a game right now, well clear of Lok. Zagreb's 1.41.
  • Model gives Istra 1961 a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Regular HNL form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Istra 1961 Clean Sheet 68%
Lok. Zagreb Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Istra 1961 Lok. Zagreb
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 11 11
Draws 8 9
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.53 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 HNL
Istra 1961 vs Lok. Zagreb
2:3
Apr 11, 2026 HNL
Lok. Zagreb vs Istra 1961
2:0
Jan 30, 2026 HNL
Istra 1961 vs Lok. Zagreb
1:1
Oct 25, 2025 HNL
Lok. Zagreb vs Istra 1961
1:2
Aug 9, 2025 HNL
Istra 1961 vs Lok. Zagreb
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Istra 1961 Compare

Top Goalscorer Frederiksen E.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Lok. Zagreb Compare

Top Goalscorer Triantafyllou A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vukovic D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Istra 1961 95 / 100
Lok. Zagreb 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Istra 1961 Lok. Zagreb

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Istra 1961 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Istra 1961's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Lok. Zagreb has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Recent resilience: Istra 1961 stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Istra 1961 VS Lok. Zagreb
2.25 Goals Scored 1.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 63%
75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Istra 1961

(Home)
19 Sept
Istra 1961
0 : 1
HNK Gorica
13 Sept
Istra 1961
3 : 2
Rudes
08 Sept
Zagorec Krapina
0 : 5
Istra 1961
04 Sept
Varazdin
0 : 0
Istra 1961
29 Aug
Istra 1961
2 : 2
Din. Zagreb
Page 1 of 7

Lok. Zagreb

(Away)
20 Sept
Din. Zagreb
3 : 2
Lok. Zagreb
12 Sept
Lok. Zagreb
1 : 1
Rijeka
09 Sept
Tomislav DA
0 : 2
Lok. Zagreb
06 Sept
Slaven Belupo
2 : 1
Lok. Zagreb
31 Aug
Hajduk Split
2 : 0
Lok. Zagreb
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Din. Zagreb 7 5 1 1 17:9 16
2 Hajduk Split 8 5 1 2 16:8 16
3 Osijek 8 5 1 2 17:11 16
4 Varazdin 8 4 3 1 13:7 15
5 Rijeka 7 4 2 1 13:7 14
6 Istra 1961 8 2 3 3 14:13 9
7 Lok. Zagreb 8 2 1 5 11:16 7
8 Slaven Belupo 8 2 1 5 7:16 7
9 HNK Gorica 8 1 2 5 5:12 5
10 Rudes 8 1 1 6 10:24 4
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva NL 2027/2028 (Main)