Sport Picks

Croatia

HNL 2025/2026 Stadion Aldo Drosina

Slaven Belupo

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Istra 1961 play Slaven Belupo in the HNL 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Istra 1961 averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. Slaven Belupo averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.89 conceded. In past meetings, Istra 1961 won 1, Slaven Belupo won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 4, 2026 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Istra 1961 and 1.19 for Slaven Belupo. This points to a Istra 1961 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%

Istra 1961

28%

Draws

30%

Slaven Belupo

Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Istra 1961

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Istra 1961 picked up more points recently compared to Slaven Belupo.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.19 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 56%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 83%

Over 2.5 Goals 56%

Over 3.5 Goals 34%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62%

Istra 1961 Clean Sheet 20%

Slaven Belupo Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 75%

Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Istra 1961	Slaven Belupo
Matches Played	30	28
Wins	12	6
Draws	4	9
Losses	14	13
Goals Scored	1.43	1.36
Goals Conceded	1.33	1.89
Expected Goals (xG)	0.63	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2026 HNL

Istra 1961 vs Slaven Belupo

Possession: 48% - 40% Cards: 3 - 1

3:1

Feb 27, 2026 HNL

Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961

Possession: 48% - 40% Cards: 0 - 4

1:0

Nov 29, 2025 HNL

Istra 1961 vs Slaven Belupo

Possession: 53% - 43% Cards: 3 - 3

1:1

Sep 12, 2025 HNL

Slaven Belupo vs Istra 1961

Possession: 50% - 59% Cards: 1 - 2

2:1

Apr 28, 2025 HNL

Istra 1961 vs Slaven Belupo

Possession: 54% - 46% Cards: 3 - 3

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Istra 1961 Compare

Top Goalscorer Prevljak S.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Rozic V.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.48

Avg xA / game 0.32

Slaven Belupo Compare

Top Goalscorer Dabro M.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Istra 1961 42 / 100

Slaven Belupo 29 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Istra 1961 Slaven Belupo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Istra 1961 or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +23.5%

2.94

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12%

2.00

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Istra 1961 attacking → ← attacking Slaven Belupo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Istra 1961 scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Slaven Belupo let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Istra 1961 went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Slaven Belupo lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

40 Points in last 5 27

0.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Din. Zagreb	36	27	5	4	93:28	86
2	Hajduk Split	36	20	8	8	61:36	68
3	Varazdin	36	15	9	12	47:46	54
4	Rijeka	36	14	11	11	49:36	53
5	Lok. Zagreb	36	10	14	12	40:52	44
6	Istra 1961	36	12	7	17	39:50	43
7	Slaven Belupo	36	10	11	15	46:61	41
8	HNK Gorica	36	11	8	17	40:48	41
9	Osijek	36	8	11	17	27:49	35
10	Vukovar 1991	36	6	10	20	37:73	28