Sport Picks

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Itabaiana vs Falcon

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano Estadio Etelvino Mendonca, Itabaiana
Our Tip

Match Events

3'
Henrique Souza Rodrigues C.
13'
Lucao
18' Event
Dione

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. The second leg ended 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
Itabaiana
20%
Draws
73%
Falcon
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Falcon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Falcon come out ahead of Itabaiana on wins alone.
  • 73% — that's where the model lands on Falcon taking it.
  • Falcon arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Itabaiana, who have won 4 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Itabaiana here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 24%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.8%
Itabaiana Clean Sheet 23%
Falcon Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Itabaiana Falcon
Matches Played 38 30
Wins 11 14
Draws 12 3
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 0.97 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 20, 2026 Sergipano
Itabaiana vs Falcon
1:0
Jan 16, 2026 Sergipano
Falcon vs Itabaiana
0:2
Feb 1, 2025 Sergipano
Itabaiana vs Falcon
4:0
Feb 18, 2024 Sergipano
Itabaiana vs Falcon
4:0
Mar 26, 2023 Sergipano
Itabaiana vs Falcon
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Itabaiana Compare

Top Goalscorer Dione
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Falcon Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itabaiana 10 / 100
Falcon 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Itabaiana Falcon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Falcon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Itabaiana scored in 66% of their last 38 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Falcon has conceded goals in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Itabaiana went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Itabaiana VS Falcon
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.38
50% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Itabaiana

(Home)
29 Aug
Itabaiana
0 : 2
Botafogo PB
23 Aug
Maranhao
4 : 1
Itabaiana
16 Aug
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
1 : 0
Itabaiana
09 Aug
Itabaiana
0 : 2
SER Caxias do Sul
25 Jul
Confianca
1 : 1
Itabaiana
Page 1 of 8

Falcon

(Away)
30 Aug
Falcon
0 : 2
Desportiva Aracaju
23 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
0 : 0
Falcon
18 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
Atletico Gloriense
13 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
America de Propria
08 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 1
Falcon
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Sergipe -
TBD -
Lagarto 0
America de Propria 3
Itabaiana 1
Falcon 0
Confianca 1
Guarany SE 0
Semi-finals
Sergipe 3
America de Propria 2
Itabaiana 2
Confianca 3
Final
Sergipe 2
Confianca 1
Itabaiana 1
America de Propria 0