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Stadium Background

Itaberai vs Guanabara City

Brazil Brazil

Goiano 3 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Guanabara City is highly favored to claim all three points on their visit to Itaberai, backed by a win probability of 64%. Itaberai averages 0.7 goals scored and 2.2 conceded in recent matches. Guanabara City shows a form average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 0 wins for Itaberai, 2 wins for Guanabara City, and 0 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 18.09.24 ended in a 2:0 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.00 for Itaberai and 1.56 for Guanabara City, suggesting the primary value lies in the Guanabara City double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Itaberai
15%
Draws
64%
Guanabara City
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Guanabara City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

90% / Very High Confidence
  • Itaberai picked up more points recently compared to Guanabara City.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 76%
Over 2.5 Goals 46%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39%
Itaberai Clean Sheet 15%
Guanabara City Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Itaberai Guanabara City
Matches Played 16 23
Wins 3 11
Draws 2 4
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 0.69 1.43
Goals Conceded 2.19 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

18.09.24 Goiano 3
Guanabara City vs Itaberai
2:0
21.08.24 Goiano 3
Itaberai vs Guanabara City
0:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Itaberai

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Guanabara City

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Itaberai Compare

Top Goalscorer N/A
0 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Guanabara City Compare

Top Goalscorer Araujo da Silva S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Itaberai 22 / 100
Guanabara City 61 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Itaberai Guanabara City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guanabara City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Guanabara City & Under 3.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +61.5%
7.69
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15%
2.50
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Guanabara City will likely look to assert dominance early, testing the hosts' defensive structure.

Itaberai 23%
Guanabara City 51%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Itaberai will look to tighten their defensive lines to neutralize Guanabara City's early runs.

Itaberai 20%
Guanabara City 67%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Expect Guanabara City to mount counter-attacks, exploiting gaps as Itaberai tries to push forward.

Itaberai 21%
Guanabara City 64%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will see Guanabara City increase their pressing intensity in the opposition half.

Itaberai 22%
Guanabara City 61%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Fatigue may set in for Itaberai's defense, opening up opportunities for Guanabara City's forward line.

Itaberai 19%
Guanabara City 70%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Expect Guanabara City to manage the closing stages, while Itaberai searches for late drama.

Itaberai 24%
Guanabara City 74%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Itaberai attacking → ← attacking Guanabara City

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Itaberai have found the net in 44% of their last 16 matches.

Guanabara City have conceded at least one goal in 57% of their last 23 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 1.50 goals per match.

Itaberai remained undefeated in 2 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Guanabara City suffered defeat in 2 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

11 Points in last 5 37
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Uruacu641116:1113
2Tupy FC640215:712
3Rio Verde631219:710
4Pires do Rio60065:300
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Mineiros843114:615
2Guanabara City84229:514
3Bela Vista FC835013:714
4Itaberai81256:155
5America GO80446:154
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Aparecida EC63219:511
2Itumbiara63218:611
3Cerrado EC62228:88
4Rioverdense60243:92