Sport Picks
Itabirito vs America MG
Brazil
Mineiro Estadio Municipal Castor Cifuentes, Nova Lima 
Match Events
56'
56'
Sub
Serginho In: Luis Campero
Out: Serginho
57'
57'
Sub
Val Soares In: Thauan
Out: Val Soares
58'
58'
Sub
Elizari F. In: Eduardo Person
Out: Elizari F.
AI Match Summary
The Mineiro game between Itabirito and America MG finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
57%
15%
28%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Itabirito
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Itabirito and America MG have been evenly matched lately, statistically speaking.
- 57% — that's where the model lands on Itabirito taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Itabirito Clean Sheet 68%
America MG Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Itabirito | America MG |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 5 | 5 |
| Draws | 10 | 7 |
| Losses | 15 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 0.93 | 0.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.67 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.29 | 0.93 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 18, 2026 Mineiro
Itabirito vs America MG
1:1
Feb 3, 2024 Mineiro
Itabirito vs America MG
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Itabirito Compare
Top Goalscorer Givigi
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65
America MG Compare
Top Goalscorer Nathan Pelae
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Itabirito 50 / 100
America MG 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Itabirito America MG
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Itabirito Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
America MG has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.
Itabirito found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).
America MG lost 4 of their last 5 games.
Games between these two average 1.00 goals.
Scoring Trends
- VS America MG
0 Goals Scored 0.75
0 Goals Conceded 1.38
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Itabirito
(Home) 14 Feb
Itabirito
2 : 7 Atletico-MG
06 Feb
Betim FC
0 : 2 Itabirito
01 Feb
Itabirito
2 : 3 Tombense
24 Jan
URT
2 : 1 Itabirito
21 Jan
Uberlandia
0 : 1 Itabirito
Page 1 of 6
14 Feb
Itabirito
2 : 7 Atletico-MG
01 Feb
Itabirito
2 : 3 Tombense
18 Jan
Itabirito
1 : 1 America MG
10 Jan
Itabirito
0 : 1 Democrata GV
26 Jul
Itabirito
1 : 2 Monte Azul
Page 1 of 3
America MG
(Away) 05 Sept
CRB
3 : 1 America MG
30 Aug
America MG
2 : 0 Ponte Preta
24 Aug
Sport Recife
3 : 0 America MG
20 Aug
Novorizontino
3 : 0 America MG
16 Aug
America MG
1 : 3 Athletic Club
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
CRB
3 : 1 America MG
24 Aug
Sport Recife
3 : 0 America MG
20 Aug
Novorizontino
3 : 0 America MG
08 Aug
Botafogo SP
2 : 1 America MG
21 Jul
Avai
2 : 1 America MG
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico-MG | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 16:8 | 14 |
| 2 | URT | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7:7 | 11 |
| 3 | Uberlandia | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:12 | 9 |
| 4 | Democrata GV | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3:8 | 7 |
Promotion - Mineiro (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America MG | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 10:6 | 15 |
| 2 | Pouso Alegre | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14:14 | 13 |
| 3 | Tombense | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10:7 | 12 |
| 4 | Betim FC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6:9 | 9 |
Promotion - Mineiro (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruzeiro | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 14:7 | 15 |
| 2 | North Esporte Clube | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14:11 | 11 |
| 3 | Itabirito | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10:17 | 7 |
| 4 | Athletic Club | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7:13 | 7 |
Promotion - Mineiro (Play Offs)
