Sport Picks
Itabuna vs Vitoria da Conquista Prediction & H2H Stats
Brazil
Baiano 2 2025 
Match Events
5'
5'
Jussimar
16'
16'
Vinicius Amaral
43'
43'
Jesus da Silva C.
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
Itabuna in this Baiano 2 2025 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Itabuna.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
30%
23%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Itabuna
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Itabuna lately — more wins on the board than Vitoria da Conquista.
- Itabuna are the model's pick here, at 80%.
- Regular Baiano 2 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Vitoria da Conquista have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 59%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 7%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Itabuna Clean Sheet 68%
Vitoria da Conquista Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Itabuna | Vitoria da Conquista |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 33 | 30 |
| Wins | 16 | 9 |
| Draws | 10 | 9 |
| Losses | 7 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.3 | 1.07 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.06 | 1.37 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.26 | 0.46 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 11, 2025 Baiano 2
Itabuna vs Vitoria da Conquista
3:2
Mar 11, 2012 Baiano
Vitoria da Conquista vs Itabuna
2:1
Feb 15, 2012 Baiano
Itabuna vs Vitoria da Conquista
1:2
Feb 18, 2010 Baiano
Itabuna vs Vitoria da Conquista
0:1
Jan 31, 2010 Baiano
Vitoria da Conquista vs Itabuna
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Itabuna Compare
Top Goalscorer Jussimar
1 Goals Assists Leader Vinicius Amaral
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.97
Avg xA / game 0.63
Vitoria da Conquista Compare
Top Goalscorer Luan
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.42
Avg xA / game 0.26
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Itabuna 86 / 100
Vitoria da Conquista 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Itabuna Vitoria da Conquista
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Itabuna Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Vitoria da Conquista conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.
Itabuna scored in 67% of their last 33 games.
H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.
Itabuna went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Itabuna VS Vitoria da Conquista
1.14 Goals Scored 0.5
0.43 Goals Conceded 1.38
43% Over 1.5 75%
29% Over 2.5 38%
14% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Itabuna
(Home) 13 Jul
Itabuna
0 : 1 Galicia
06 Jul
Galicia
0 : 0 Itabuna
29 Jun
SSA
0 : 0 Itabuna
15 Jun
Itabuna
1 : 0 Bahia de Feira
08 Jun
Teixeira de Freitas
0 : 3 Itabuna
Page 1 of 7
13 Jul
Itabuna
0 : 1 Galicia
15 Jun
Itabuna
1 : 0 Bahia de Feira
01 Jun
Itabuna
2 : 2 EC Ypiranga
25 May
Itabuna
2 : 0 Grapiuna
11 May
Itabuna
3 : 2 Vitoria da Conquista
Page 1 of 4
Vitoria da Conquista
(Away) 05 Jul
Vitoria da Conquista
2 : 2 Fluminense de Feira
21 Jun
Barreiras
2 : 1 Vitoria da Conquista
14 Jun
Vitoria da Conquista
0 : 1 Redencao
06 Jun
Camacari
2 : 5 Vitoria da Conquista
31 May
Vitoria da Conquista
0 : 2 Grapiuna
Page 1 of 6
21 Jun
Barreiras
2 : 1 Vitoria da Conquista
06 Jun
Camacari
2 : 5 Vitoria da Conquista
17 May
Jacobina
0 : 0 Vitoria da Conquista
02 May
Feira FC
3 : 0 Vitoria da Conquista
14 Jun
Galicia
1 : 2 Vitoria da Conquista
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Itabuna | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 20:7 | 23 |
| 2 | Bahia de Feira | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 28:5 | 20 |
| 3 | Fluminense de Feira | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 16:5 | 20 |
| 4 | Galicia | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 20:9 | 15 |
| 5 | EC Ypiranga | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11:9 | 13 |
| 6 | Vitoria da Conquista | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | 11 |
| 7 | SSA | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10:8 | 10 |
| 8 | Leonico | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12:20 | 7 |
| 9 | Grapiuna | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4:31 | 1 |
| 10 | Teixeira de Freitas | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0:24 | 0 |
Promotion - Baiano 2 2025 (Play Offs)
