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Stadium Background

Italy U21 vs Denmark U21

World World

Friendly International 2025 Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Cittadella
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Sorensen O.
37' Event
Prati M.
43'
Chukwuani T.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Friendly International 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Italy U21
6%
Draws
4%
Denmark U21
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Italy U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Italy U21 lately — more wins on the board than Denmark U21.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Italy U21 taking it.
  • Regular Friendly International 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Italy U21 Clean Sheet 17%
Denmark U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Italy U21 Denmark U21
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 18 12
Draws 7 9
Losses 4 9
Goals Scored 2.5 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 24, 2025 Friendly International
Italy U21 vs Denmark U21
1:1
Jun 18, 2017 Euro U21
Denmark U21 vs Italy U21
0:2
Nov 14, 2016 Friendly International
Italy U21 vs Denmark U21
0:0
Nov 17, 2014 Friendly International
Italy U21 vs Denmark U21
0:1
Aug 11, 2010 Friendly International
Italy U21 vs Denmark U21
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Italy U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Prati M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.92
Avg xA / game 1.25

Denmark U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Sorensen O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Italy U21 84 / 100
Denmark U21 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Italy U21 Denmark U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ITA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Italy U21 found the back of the net in 97% of recent matches (29 games).

Denmark U21 has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Italy U21 has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Italy U21 VS Denmark U21
2.5 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Italy U21

(Home)
08 Jun
Italy U21
1 : 0
Albania U21
31 Mar
Sweden U21
0 : 4
Italy U21
26 Mar
Italy U21
4 : 0
North Macedonia U21
18 Nov
Montenegro U21
1 : 4
Italy U21
14 Nov
Poland U21
2 : 1
Italy U21
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Denmark U21

(Away)
31 Mar
Denmark U21
4 : 0
Wales U21
18 Nov
Belarus U21
0 : 1
Denmark U21
14 Nov
Denmark U21
1 : 1
USA U21
14 Oct
Belgium U21
2 : 0
Denmark U21
10 Oct
Denmark U21
1 : 1
Austria U21
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