Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Italy vs Belgium - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Italy Logo

Italy

0 - 2
FT
Belgium Logo

Belgium

Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Godts M.
Assist: De Bruyne K.
25'
Raskin N.
29'
Moreira D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The UEFA Nations League game between Italy and Belgium finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Belgium.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Italy
15%
Draws
32%
Belgium
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Italy

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Italy come out ahead of Belgium on wins alone.
  • Model gives Italy a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Italy Clean Sheet 10%
Belgium Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Italy Belgium
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 17 16
Draws 5 7
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 1.83 2.42
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 25, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Italy vs Belgium
0:2
Nov 14, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Belgium vs Italy
0:1
Oct 10, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Italy vs Belgium
2:2
Oct 10, 2021 UEFA Nations League
Italy vs Belgium
2:1
Jul 2, 2021 Euro
Belgium vs Italy
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Italy Compare

Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Belgium Compare

Top Goalscorer Godts M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lukebakio D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Italy 40 / 100
Belgium 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Italy Belgium

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Italy found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

Belgium has conceded goals in 65% of their last 31 outings.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Italy has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Italy VS Belgium
1.57 Goals Scored 2.75
1 Goals Conceded 0.88
71% Over 1.5 88%
43% Over 2.5 50%
29% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Italy

(Home)
05 Oct
Italy
3 : 1
Turkey
02 Oct
France
1 : 1
Italy
28 Sept
Turkey
1 : 4
Italy
25 Sept
Italy
0 : 2
Belgium
07 Jun
Greece
0 : 1
Italy
Page 1 of 6

Belgium

(Away)
05 Oct
France
4 : 1
Belgium
02 Oct
Belgium
3 : 0
Turkey
28 Sept
Belgium
0 : 1
France
25 Sept
Italy
0 : 2
Belgium
10 Jul
Spain
2 : 1
Belgium
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 France 4 3 1 0 7:2 10
2 Italy 4 2 1 1 8:5 7
3 Belgium 4 2 0 2 6:5 6
4 Turkey 4 0 0 4 2:11 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Netherlands 4 2 2 0 7:5 8
2 Greece 4 2 2 0 5:3 8
3 Germany 4 1 2 1 3:2 5
4 Serbia 4 0 0 4 3:8 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spain 4 4 0 0 12:5 12
2 England 4 3 0 1 14:3 9
3 Croatia 4 1 0 3 4:14 3
4 Czech Republic 4 0 0 4 2:10 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugal 4 4 0 0 9:4 12
2 Denmark 4 2 0 2 7:7 6
3 Wales 4 1 0 3 2:5 3
4 Norway 4 1 0 3 6:8 3
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)