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Italy vs France - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League
Thu, Nov 12, 2026
VS
07:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Italy host France in the UEFA Nations League. This one's hard to separate. Italy have averaged 1.83 scored and 1.23 conceded recently, against France's 2.24 scored and 1.09 conceded. Past meetings favor France slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Oct 2, 2026, ending 1:1. xG projections (1.10 - 1.75) back France to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Italy
20%
Draws
40%
France
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • France have won more games recently than Italy.
  • Model gives Italy a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 33.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Italy Clean Sheet 12%
France Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Italy France
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 17 23
Draws 5 5
Losses 8 6
Goals Scored 1.83 2.24
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 2, 2026 UEFA Nations League
France vs Italy
1:1
Nov 17, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Italy vs France
1:3
Sep 6, 2024 UEFA Nations League
France vs Italy
1:3
Jun 1, 2018 Friendly International
France vs Italy
3:1
Sep 1, 2016 Friendly International
Italy vs France
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Italy 56 / 100
France 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Italy France

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Italy Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Italy found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

France has conceded goals in 62% of their last 34 outings.

Solid form: Italy remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Italy VS France
1.57 Goals Scored 2.5
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
71% Over 1.5 88%
43% Over 2.5 75%
29% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Italy

(Home)
05 Oct
Italy
3 : 1
Turkey
02 Oct
France
1 : 1
Italy
28 Sept
Turkey
1 : 4
Italy
25 Sept
Italy
0 : 2
Belgium
07 Jun
Greece
0 : 1
Italy
Page 1 of 6

France

(Away)
05 Oct
France
4 : 1
Belgium
02 Oct
France
1 : 1
Italy
28 Sept
Belgium
0 : 1
France
25 Sept
Turkey
0 : 1
France
18 Jul
France
4 : 6
England
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 France 4 3 1 0 7:2 10
2 Italy 4 2 1 1 8:5 7
3 Belgium 4 2 0 2 6:5 6
4 Turkey 4 0 0 4 2:11 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Netherlands 4 2 2 0 7:5 8
2 Greece 4 2 2 0 5:3 8
3 Germany 4 1 2 1 3:2 5
4 Serbia 4 0 0 4 3:8 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spain 4 4 0 0 12:5 12
2 England 4 3 0 1 14:3 9
3 Croatia 4 1 0 3 4:14 3
4 Czech Republic 4 0 0 4 2:10 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugal 4 4 0 0 9:4 12
2 Denmark 4 2 0 2 7:7 6
3 Wales 4 1 0 3 2:5 3
4 Norway 4 1 0 3 6:8 3
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)