Sport Picks
Match Events
26'
26'
Scamacca G.
42'
42'
Scamacca G.
47'
47'
Ruggeri M.
AI Match Summary
The UEFA Nations League game between Italy and Turkey finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Italy.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
65%
15%
20%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Italy
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ High Confidence
- Italy's 1.94 goals per match outpaces what Turkey have produced (1.68).
- Win probability leans Italy's way, sitting at 90%.
- European nights carry their own weight — this UEFA Nations League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Italy have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Italy Clean Sheet 68%
Turkey Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Italy | Turkey |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 34 |
| Wins | 18 | 18 |
| Draws | 5 | 5 |
| Losses | 8 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.94 | 1.68 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.26 | 1.35 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.06 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 5, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Italy vs Turkey
3:1
Sep 28, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Turkey vs Italy
1:4
Jun 4, 2024 Friendly International
Italy vs Turkey
0:0
Mar 29, 2022 Friendly International
Turkey vs Italy
2:3
Jun 11, 2021 Euro
Turkey vs Italy
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Italy Compare
Top Goalscorer Scamacca G.
1 Goals Assists Leader Calafiori R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53
Turkey Compare
Top Goalscorer Simsir A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Italy 95 / 100
Turkey 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Italy Turkey
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Italy Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 8:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Italy found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (31 games).
H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.
Defensive concern: Turkey conceded in 74% of 34 recent games.
Recent resilience: Italy stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Italy VS Turkey
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Italy
(Home) 05 Oct
Italy
3 : 1 Turkey
02 Oct
France
1 : 1 Italy
28 Sept
Turkey
1 : 4 Italy
25 Sept
Italy
0 : 2 Belgium
07 Jun
Greece
0 : 1 Italy
Page 1 of 7
05 Oct
Italy
3 : 1 Turkey
25 Sept
Italy
0 : 2 Belgium
26 Mar
Italy
2 : 0 Northern Ireland
16 Nov
Italy
1 : 4 Norway
14 Oct
Italy
3 : 0 Israel
Page 1 of 3
Turkey
(Away) 05 Oct
Italy
3 : 1 Turkey
02 Oct
Belgium
3 : 0 Turkey
28 Sept
Turkey
1 : 4 Italy
25 Sept
Turkey
0 : 1 France
26 Jun
Turkey
3 : 2 USA
Page 1 of 7
05 Oct
Italy
3 : 1 Turkey
02 Oct
Belgium
3 : 0 Turkey
14 Jun
Australia
2 : 0 Turkey
06 Jun
Venezuela
1 : 2 Turkey
31 Mar
Kosovo
0 : 1 Turkey
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | 7 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:5 | 6 |
| 4 | Turkey | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:11 | 0 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:5 | 8 |
| 2 | Greece | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | 8 |
| 3 | Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3:2 | 5 |
| 4 | Serbia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3:8 | 0 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12:5 | 12 |
| 2 | England | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14:3 | 9 |
| 3 | Croatia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4:14 | 3 |
| 4 | Czech Republic | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:10 | 0 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9:4 | 12 |
| 2 | Denmark | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:7 | 6 |
| 3 | Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 4 | Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6:8 | 3 |
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
