Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Italy W vs Wales W

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League Women U-Power Stadium (Brianteo), Monza
Italy W Logo

Italy W

1 - 0
FT
Wales W Logo

Wales W

Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Bonansea B.
Assist: Giugliano M.
37'
Jones C.
46'
Sub
Jones C. In: Morgan F.
Out: Jones C.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The UEFA Nations League Women game between Italy W and Wales W finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Italy W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Italy W
35%
Draws
38%
Wales W
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Wales W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Wales W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this UEFA Nations League Women fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Italy W have won 4 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Italy W Clean Sheet 11%
Wales W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Italy W Wales W
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 12
Draws 10 8
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.53 1.87
Goals Conceded 1 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 3, 2025 UEFA Nations League Women
Wales W vs Italy W
1:4
Feb 21, 2025 UEFA Nations League Women
Italy W vs Wales W
1:0
Jan 22, 2019 Friendly International Women
Italy W vs Wales W
2:0
Mar 2, 2018 International Tournament (Cyprus) Women
Wales W vs Italy W
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Italy W Compare

Top Goalscorer Bonansea B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Wales W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Italy W 30 / 100
Wales W 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Italy W Wales W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Wales W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Italy W has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Italy W scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Wales W has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.75 goals.

Scoring Trends

Italy W VS Wales W
1 Goals Scored 2.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Italy W

(Home)
09 Jun
Sweden W
2 : 2
Italy W
05 Jun
Italy W
3 : 0
Serbia W
18 Apr
Denmark W
0 : 0
Italy W
14 Apr
Serbia W
0 : 6
Italy W
07 Mar
Italy W
1 : 1
Denmark W
Page 1 of 6

Wales W

(Away)
09 Jun
Wales W
3 : 1
Czech Republic W
05 Jun
Montenegro W
1 : 1
Wales W
18 Apr
Albania W
0 : 1
Wales W
14 Apr
Wales W
4 : 0
Albania W
07 Mar
Wales W
6 : 1
Montenegro W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Germany W 6 5 1 0 26:4 16
2 Netherlands W 6 3 2 1 11:10 11
3 Austria W 6 2 0 4 5:16 6
4 Scotland W 6 0 1 5 3:15 1
Promotion - UEFA Nations League Women (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women 2027 (League B)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 France W 6 6 0 0 14:2 18
2 Norway W 6 2 2 2 4:5 8
3 Iceland W 6 0 4 2 6:9 4
4 Switzerland W 6 0 2 4 4:12 2
Promotion - UEFA Nations League Women (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women 2027 (League B)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spain W 6 5 0 1 21:8 15
2 England W 6 3 1 2 16:6 10
3 Belgium W 6 2 0 4 9:16 6
4 Portugal W 6 1 1 4 5:21 4
Promotion - UEFA Nations League Women (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women 2027 (League B)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sweden W 6 3 3 0 13:6 12
2 Italy W 6 3 1 2 11:7 10
3 Denmark W 6 3 0 3 8:13 9
4 Wales W 6 0 2 4 4:10 2
Promotion - UEFA Nations League Women (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League Women 2027 (League B)